Following on from a conversation we had in our NRL Fantasy Amateurs group chat this morning with some newer players, we want to go back to basics for a second to make sure everyone is on the right track. As seasoned players, we get caught up assuming that all our listeners know the basics, but our aim here has always been to give you the tools to succeed, rather than telling you which players to buy and that being gospel.
This is an extract from our game theory article, which explains the principles of WHY we look for 10 points of “value”:
Your starting team is worth $10M, so lets say you need to gain about $6M in value across the year. You get 44 trades, but you need to save a third of those (minimum) for injuries. This means, with your remaining 30 trades and 21 players in your squad, you need to make a profit of $200k for every trade you spend. Now you might be thinking “but Amateurs, hardly any players have $200k value, thats like 15+ point increase on their BE” – and you would be correct.
Luckily for you, the starting players that you bring into your team do not require a trade.
Unluckily for you, like the 1/3 injury rule, we have to expect that 1/3 of the guys you start with are going to flop and underperform or get injured. Also keep in mind, thanks to rule #1, you are starting with Cleary so you actually only have 20 roster spots. Also, because you are diligent studiers of the Fantasy Amateurs website you are also going to start with Payne Haas and Matt Burton, which means you have 18 spots to make money with.
Now you have to ask yourself: are there any other players I can start with that will save me a trade and give me the above mentioned players I need (a high 50s/60+ average player or a 50ish average centre/19th man) without me paying full price? Of course these “keeper” players exist, but you will need to work out who they are. It is my belief that you should be able to locate at least 3 of these players making about $100k per player in addition to Haas and Burton, plus Captain Cleary holding value, meaning you can save 6 trades and fill spots in your final team with 15 spots remaining, $5.5M to make and a full compliment of 38 trades to get there, bringing you down to $145K per roster spot.
With your 15 starting players and 30 trades to spend, thats a total of 44 players you can use to generate that $5.5M, so the actual value required per trade/player is $122K, or about 8-10 points of value. This is why you hear experienced players talking about looking for either 10 points of value, or less value but still an under priced in a “keeper” player.
Hopefully that all makes sense, but its missing one critical part – how do we select these players, and identify players that are likely to be profitable?
Well, when we are selecting fantasy players we are looking for players with one or more of these
- increased minutes
- increased opportunity
- recovered from injury
Take Payne Haas. He had 2 shoulder injuries and an ankle injury last year. As a result, he had a few games where he played reduced minutes and had a career low ppm as he was playing with an injured shoulder. This year we expect hes recovered from those injuries, and historically when he plays about 60 mins he averages about 1 point a minute. Priced at a 55 average, therefore he is a good value as a “keeper” with 5+ points of value.
As another example, Tanah Boyd has locked down the halfback position at the Titans and averages about 47 when playing in the halves. He starts the year with a BE of 29, so that is actually 18 points of value (in theory), which should be a slam dunk for fantasy managers.
On the opposite side, Munster had a career best year last year, and played a hybrid fullback/halves role at the back end where he averaged 67.5. That means in his halves games he only averaged 60.4. He starts the year priced at 62 AND hes carrying an injury, so while he is a gun he is likely overpriced and therefore NOT a value.
Some signs you can look for to help you start identifying players, noting that they are not ALWAYS a value when this happens, its just a starting point:
- The player changed teams, likely for a larger role (see Eliesa Katoa or J’Maine Hopgood)
- Someone in that same position at this players team has left, creating opportunity for more minutes or added responsibility (see Shaun Johnson or Tanah Boyd)
- The player got injured at some stage through the year last year, ideally a few times (see Payne Haas or Cam Murray)
- The player started 2022 slow, but performed well in the back half of the season and that role (see Joseph Tapine or Reece Robson)
Essentially, if a player does not meet these criteria, there is really no way they should be in your team at the START of the year, but may be keepers at the finish of the year. Players on this list include Nicho Hynes, Isaah Yeo, David Klemmer, Damien Cook, etc.
For new players, there are only a few bits of essential reading. They can be found here:
Game Theory: https://amateursfantasysports.com/nrl/game-theory/
Bye Planner: https://amateursfantasysports.com/nrl/bye-planning/
Short List: https://amateursfantasysports.com/nrl/short-list/
Best of luck fellow Amateurs!
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