MID-ELIGIBLE MADNESS

Spurred on by Ryan’s off the cuff blind rankings of the MID eligible options, we take it one step further and do a deep dive on the sub $700k MID eligible options who are potential keepers at this point in the season. Fantasy coaches have AT LEAST 13 options, not including Max King who has been omitted due to inflated scoring through unsustainable injury tolls, and James Fisher-Harris who, himself, is injured but is an interesting choice.

First of all, lets have a look at the candidates on a simple table:

NAME	$	BE	DPP	BYE	ORIGIN
CAM MCINNES	$573K	45	N	13	NO
COREY HORSBURGH	$583K	41	N	8	NO
TEVITA PANGAI JR	$602K	39	EDG	13	NO
LINDSAY COLLINS	$606K	51	N	13	LIKELY
JACK DE BELIN	$614K	42	N	16	NO
MO FOTUAIKA	$620K	32	N	13	NO
JAI ARROW	$639K	46	EDG	16	UNLIKELY
TOM GILBERT	$642K	46	EDG	11	LIKELY
DAVID KLEMMER	$655K	62	N	13	NO
JAKE TRBOJEVIC	$670K	51	N	13	YES
REUBEN COTTER	$672K	52	N	15	LIKELY
PAT CARRIGAN	$685K	62	N	16	YES
TINO FA’ASUAMALEAUI	$687K	58	N	13	YES

Being as spoilt for choice as we are, I think we can quickly eliminate the following players from our decision making process…

LINDSAY COLLINS

While he is a great player, there is no doubt he had some inflated scores thanks to injuries in the Roosters ranks. While he is more than capable of pumping out 55+ minutes a week, the Roosters do not need him in this role, and Queensland will likely be looking to utilise his services at prop come State of Origin.

TINO FA’ASUAMALEAUI

While he is an excellent middle forward, both for the Titans and Queensland, Tino just does not sustain the PPM and consistency needed to be a gun forward, at under 0.8PPM in 50+ minute games, where he averages 49.8. As the most expensive player on the list, and a walk up for Origin duties, you can pass safely on Tino.

JAKE TRBOJEVIC

An absolute warhorse, and maybe the fantasy comeback story of the year, Jake has dragged himself back to relevance with a respectable average of 49.8 and has played every minute of football so far this year for Manly. He is a certainty to feature for the Blues at Prop, and will no doubt miss some minutes through Origin, not to mention the round 14 bye.

TOM GILBERT

With a bye in round 11 before a likely call up to Origin in Round 13, Gilbert looks like one that got away from the Amateurs early. He has made $75k on his starting price and is averaging almost 50 points, but some injuries and suspensions have boosted his scoring.

CULLING THE WEAK FROM THE HERD

Looking at the rest of the candidates, we need to project their average moving forward, role security, and floor/ceiling based on typical expected minutes to look for any weak links…

NAME	$	SAFETY	FLOOR	CEILING	PROJECTION
CAM MCINNES	$573K	4	34	71	52
COREY HORSBURGH	$583K	3	44	65	51
TEVITA PANGAI JR	$602K	2	20	84	53
JACK DE BELIN	$614K	2	37	76	50
MO FOTUAIKA	$620K	3	29	66	49
JAI ARROW	$639K	2	39	68	51
DAVID KLEMMER	$655K	2	36	88	49
REUBEN COTTER	$672K	1	34	71	52
PAT CARRIGAN	$685K	1	29	69	54

From this, there are a few player we can just weed out for various reasons…

CAM MCINNES

McInnes registered his first 50+ minute game of the season off the back of the suspension of Dale Finucane, who will return in a couple of weeks. In his 9 game sample of 50+ minute starts at lock for the Sharks, McInnes does average 51.9 points, but the concern is that Fitzgibbon has shown a tendency to prefer Fincuane at lock, with McInnes off the bench. He is not a bad selection, but with a combination of doubt and a round 13 bye, you can let this one go through to the keeper.

MOEAKI FOTUAIKA

One of the POD options on the list at only 0.5% ownership and the lowest BE on the list, Fotuaika just doesn’t have the scoring or minutes consistency, or the floor and ceiling of some of his counterparts. With Tino and Fifita likely off to Origin, he could definitely step up, but we expect he falls just short of keeper status this year with the odd very low score weighing him down.

COREY HORSBURGH

Corey was one of our preseason favourites, but he is on the bye this week and also his coach is a lunatic. Post bye we likely see shake ups because thats what teams who are not performing tend to do, and we could easily see Horsburgh return to his former role of 45 minute bench prop. If he performs well in round 9 after the bye we could revisit him, but we just do not trust Ricky to leave Corey in this huge minute lock role.

DAVID KLEMMER

One to revisit in round 14, but for now this fallen MID gun is down on a few minutes and in turn scoring. With a super high BE there is no need to rush him in, but playing rounds 16, 19 and 20 could be a huge asset to fantasy managers looking for a predictable MID scorer later in the year. If the Tigers start to hit form, big Dave will likely mirror it and be a value.

THE GENUINE BUY CONTENDERS

With only 5 players left, we need to look more closely at these options, particularly their downside and potential risks, or reasons not to select them…

PAT CARRIGAN

Many fantasy managers will no doubt be frustrated with Carrigan, but the reality is that the Broncos have been gifted one of the softest starts I have ever seen for an NRL team. They are 6/7 at a points differential of +12.3 points per game, and are comfortably the highest scoring team in the NRL. Carrigan has averaged 56.7 fantasy points in games the Broncos lost or won by 6 or less, and 47.8 in games they blew their opposition off the park. Their next 5 games are against 5 teams highly likely to feature in the top 8 before Carrigan heads into Origin camp, and I think it would be a mistake to sell him off this cash loss. The Broncos are bound to come down to earth, and more ball in play and more tackling is perfect for Carrigan and his fantasy output. He is actually low key a really interesting buy against the Eels this week, who love to play through the middle of the field, particularly for H2H players. I strongly, strongly suggest all Carrigan managers hold him through to Round 13. I know you are frustrated, but you will be even angrier if he booms as projected.

REUBEN COTTER

Cotter performed well in Origin last year, but is by no means a guaranteed starter. With injuries galore in the Cowboys pack (Taumalolo, Luki, Neame and Tamou from their first choice 17), Cotter needs to pump out big minutes for the Cowboys, and off a few injury impacted games he represents a really interesting value proposition. In finals inclusive games where he plays at least 55 minutes in the middle, he averages 59.4 points in 63.9 minutes, and is more than likely the best option on this list. If he does not play Origin he is a borderline must own, and it may be worth rolling this particular dice.

JAI ARROW

Like Cotter, Arrow is a possible but not probable for Origin, and looks to be a really interesting option with a (more or less) guaranteed 80 minute role for the bunnies who also play Round 13. He doesn’t have the upside of a Cotter type, but seems to be one of the safer plays on this list, and comes with a nice discount. The only real knock on him for me is that he has some recent hamstring injuries which is never a great thing, and the potential for the Bunnies to look to Host and Chee-Kam on the edges, with Arrow at prop. We need him in an 80 minute edge role to want to buy here.

JACK DE BELIN

After cranking out 80 minutes at lock and dropping a whopping $67k this season, De Belin is a really interesting option for fantasy managers. With Bird shifting to the edge and looking sharp, the Dragons look to have found a solution to their rotation with JDB taking up the 60-80 minute lock role that Bird was playing. This frees the Dragons up to use Lawrie, Musgrove, Molo, Kerr and Couchman for quality minutes over quantity, and spend extra interchanges getting Liddle and Mbye minutes (lol). The obvious concern is the Dragons continuing to shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic, but if De Belin plays 60+ mins a week in the middle he is a keeper that will be available in Round 13.

TEVITA PANGAI JR

Saving the best for last, Pangai is unique to this list due to his volatility, unpredictability, and upside. He is unfortunately unavailable in Round 13, but is the cheapest player on the list, has the second lowest BE, dual position, is highly unlikely for Origin, and has the highest ceiling of any player on the list, both in terms of average and weekly scoring. The obvious downside is his floor, which is actually a basement akin to the laboratory in Resident Evil, buried 20 floors below the ground under the streets of Canterbury. In a tough matchup against the Eels in his first game back from a 6 week calf injury, TPJ showed us EVERYTHING we wanted to see, from a willingness to offload to a decent accrual of base stats. With a clear role in the team as a 50 (ish) minute prop, his mandate is simple: run hard, tackle hard, break tackles and create second phase. He looks lean and mean, but as always the looming danger of brain snaps is ever present. If Ciraldo can harness and direct him, there is no limit to his potential, up to and including Payne Haas level output.

IN CLOSING

Looking at our whole list, there is really only 4 options to buy for overall coaches, with Carrigan being a moral for Origin and a tougher sell than I am prepared to do.

For a player that don’t mind taking a risk, this is the order I would put them in…

1. Tevita Pangai Jr
2. Reuben Cotter
3. Jai Arrow
4. Jack De Belin

For a more conservative player who wants to get a strong combination of value and POD…

1. Jack De Belin
2. Jai Arrow
3. Tevita Pangai Jr
4. Reuben Cotter

Lastly, for H2H coaches…

1. Reuben Cotter
2. Pat Carrigan (no really, think about this)
3. Tevita Pangai Jr
4. Jai Arrow
5. Jack De Belin

Honorable mention to Mo Fotuaika for H2H players, who is an option if Arrow and JDB don’t tickle your fancy. He will be available for all remaining H2H matchups, and has weekly upside if Tino or Fifita is rested through the Origin period.

There are a few players outside of this article that we also may recommend in the MID position, including J’Maine Hopgood, Tohu Harris and Joe Tapine just above $700K, and Brandon Smith and Jackson Ford under $500K. All of these players merit consideration.

Hopefully you enjoyed our assessment of these players and their fantasy prospects. If you liked our work and/or found it helpful, feel free to buy us a beer/coffee. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/fantasyamateurs

As always, love you guys!

Amateur Mark