As we know, the NRL Fantasy players prices operate a little bit like a stock market, rising and falling with performance. Like the stock market, it is important to buy low, sell high, and have a healthy balance of risky and safe stocks. We will tell you which players to buy low and sell high on, and which ones are solid blue chippers or volatile penny stocks. We will also keep a list to hold, avoid, or monitor to wait for the dip to reach the bottom.
This article is bought to you by good friend of the show Jonas Wealth Management (https://www.jonaswm.com/), the preferred financial planner for Amateurs founding members Mark and Ryan. We have known Tyson for 10+ years, and while he is a terrible fantasy player, he is a great advisor (he has been a multi-year finalist for Independent Financial Advisor under 30 of the year), and handles both of our finances. He has helped me (Mark) personally with advice in the stock market, superannuation and insurance.
In the opinion of the Amateurs, it is never too early to get your finances on track, I know I personally burned up plenty in unnecessary fees and in bad super funds. If you want to find out more, contact Tyson through one of the many channels on his website and see what he has to offer your financial future – just don’t take any fantasy football tips from him, although he asked me to mention that he was briefly #1 overall in 2020, and that he is currently a higher rank than me in overall (post Round 1)!
RISKY BUY LOW – VOLATILE PENNY STOCKS
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | BE | POTENTIAL UPSIDE | POTENTIAL VALUE | TIMELINE/RISKS |
| TOM TRBOJEVIC | $652K | 40 | $750K+ | $100K+ | ORIGIN |
| KOTONI STAGGS | $534K | 28 | $600K+ | $100K+ | INCONSISTENCY |
| MATT BURTON | $618K | 25 | $800K | $150K+ | IS HE BACK? |
| TINO FA’ASUAMALEAUI | $703K | 51 | $750K+ | $50K+ | TWO BYES |
| ALOFIANA KHAN-PERERIA | $304K | -19 | $450K | $150K | INCONSISTENCY |
| HUDSON YOUNG | $626K | 39 | $750K | $100K+ | TRY SCORING |
| ZAC HOSKING | $607K | 2 | $700K+ | $100K+ | GARNER/MARTIN |
| JAYDEN CAMPBELL | $413K | 42 | $650K | $200K+ | BRIMSON TIMELINE |
| BRANDON SMITH | $477K | 36 | $600K+ | $120K+ | WHEELS UP |
BUY LOW – SAFE BLUE CHIPPERS
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | BE | EXPECTED PEAK | POTENTIAL VALUE | TIMELINE/RISKS |
| REECE ROBSON | $802K | 51 | $850K | $50K | ESSENTIAL FOR OVERALL PLAYERS |
| DYLAN BROWN | $663K | 50 | $800K+ | $100K+ | IDEAL SCHEDULE |
| JACK BIRD | $604K | 40 | $700K+ | $100K | BIG MIN LOCK |
| RYAN MATTERSON | $777K | 48 | $850K+ | $50K+ | MINUTES |
| JACKSON FORD | $418K | 10 | $500K+ | $150K+ | 80 MIN ROLE? |
| TYSON FRIZELL | $631K | 29 | $750K | $150K | STOP GETTING INJURED YA GRONK |
| NATHAN CLEARY | $879K | 54 | $1M | $100K+ | ORIGIN PERIOD |
| JAYDEN BRAILEY | $604K | 42 | $700K+ | $100K+ | WHEELS UP |
SELL HIGH – VOLATILE PENNY STOCKS
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | BE | EXPECTED PEAK | POTENTIAL VALUE | TIMELINE/RISKS |
| LUKE GARNER | $491K | 34 | $550K | $50K | UNSAFE ROLE |
| ADAM DOUEIHI | $647K | 74 | $700K | NIL | FULLBACK |
| HARLEY SMITH-SHIELDS | $273K | 28 | $300K | NIL | NO UPSIDE |
| BRYCE CARTRIGHT | $527K | 23 | $540K | NIL | LANE RETURNS |
SELL HIGH – SAFE BLUE CHIPPERS
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | EXPECTED PEAK | POTENTIAL VALUE | TIMELINE/RISKS |
| MARK NICHOLLS | $540K | $500K | -$50K | FATHER TIME |
| REUBEN COTTER | $711K | $700K | -$20K | REDUCED MINS |
| BRAYDON TRINDALL | $392K | PENDING | PENDING | RETURN OF NICHO |
| MATT DOOREY | $341K | $350K | MINIMAL | INJURY/ROLE |
MONITOR THE DIP
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | EXPECTED PEAK | CURRENT BREAKEVEN | BUY SIGNAL | COMMENTS |
| CAMERON MUNSTER | $800K | $850K+ | 66 | BE <60 | RD 1 INJURY LOW SCORE |
| TEVITA TATOLA | $532K | $650K | 57 | BE <45 | RD1 CONCUSSION |
| JAMES TEDESCO | $616K | $800K | 69 | BE <50 | CONCUSSION |
| SCOTT DRINKWATER | $606K | $700K | 69 | BE <45 | FINGER OUT |
| JOSEPH MANU | $672K | $700K | 63 | BE <45 | REGRESSION |
| REED MAHONEY | $679K | $750K | 60 | MTS!! | LEARN TO TACKLE |
| DAVID KLEMMER | $690K | $750K | 68 | BE <50 | MINUTES |
| JOHN BATEMAN | $728K | $750K+ | 64 | BE <50 | RIBS |
| API KOROISAU | $586K | $700K+ | 51 | BE <50 | TIGERS SUCK |
| JAMES FISHER-HARRIS | $672K | $750K | 60 | BE <50 | KNEE |
| JAMAL FOGARTY | $600K | $750K+ | 62 | BE <50 | RAIDERS SUCK |
| KYLE FELDT | $330K | $480K | 36 | BE <35 | TRIES COMING |
HOLD (THEY WILL BE FINE)
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | EXPECTED PEAK | POTENTIAL VALUE | COMMENTS |
| JOSEPH TAPINE | $759K | $850K+ | $100K | WEIRD MINS |
| TANAH BOYD | $490K | $600K | $100K | TEAM INJURIES |
| IZACK THOMPSON | $354K | $450K | $100K | VOLATILE |
AVOID (HOLD IF YOU ALREADY HAVE THEM THOUGH)
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | EXPECTED PEAK | POTENTIAL VALUE | TIMELINE/RISKS |
| JOSEPH SUAALII | $511K | $500K | $0K | OUTLIER |
| TRENT LOIERO | $505K | $550K | $50K+ | NEARING VALUE |
| TYRELL SLOAN | $403K | $450K | $100K | VOLATILE |
DON’T YOU DARE!
| PLAYER NAME | CURRENT PRICE | BUT WHY |
If you can’t see a players name on this list, it likely means we aren’t considering them as a buy/sell/etc at the moment. Feel free to shoot us a DM if you think we may have missed someone so we can update our list, and don’t forget to slip in Tysons DMs on Facebook about booking a consultation! (https://www.facebook.com/jonaswealthmanagement)
Amateurs Fantasy Sports 
Hey lads
Not on socials. Spend too much time listening to your podcasts that I’ll get in trouble from the fam if I’m spending more time on your socials. So I wouldn’t mind sending a quick question on here if I can.
Comment/question
Firstly for Mark. Mate you make a lot of predictions week to week, they’re often very matter of fact which I appreciate. Generally you’re bang on and it’s really good advice. However when you’re right you let everyone know, fair play, a bit of a Mulitalo of fantasy podcasting. I found your advice stellar so far so I would be keen to here some of yourself reflection when you get it wrong. For example this week you have said Hosking isn’t a buy and nikorima is. Say hosking kills it and keeps his spot or Nikorima has a run of teen scores like he has many times, can you discuss what you were hoping for and what went wrong. Cheers lad
I know you lads have done the poddy for this week but I think it could still be relevant next week. ISZAC FA’ASUAMALEAUI.
This week I have smith shields and doorey and no cash. Want to flick them to the real ‘F’ word #2 and Nikorima which frees me up cash.
‘F’ has only played 2 games but the second in a 40min effort looked great. We will know more after the weekend but Ild love a bit of a chat about him and your thoughts, especially if he gets. 35-40min role.
Lastly I am a believe in selling the ‘Almost’ gun high. A chat next week about selling Shaun Johnson. I am stuck on the fence. The run after the knights is brutal but if the warriors stay in the contest he will still score well e.g. roosters bulldogs this year. But if they get pumped and live under the post it will be a tough run.
I’m sitting at 339, so thanks for the advice lads.
Enjoy
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Hey mate! Mark here.
Fair play on the socials, TBH I wish I could disable mine. Ultimately, nobody is ever right 100% of the time, but in a time where I am ribbed every single time I am wrong (see Zac Cini) its important to toot your own horn every once in a while. I often lament bad calls and try to pick where I went wrong, I made a point of doing it at the end of last year and then again in the first blog post of this year, because the best way to learn is to make mistakes.
As for Hosking, its important to remember I am the only podcast host that owns him, and was BALLS DEEP on him last week. I have no issue with people buying him this week, my only question is why did you wait? The only difference between last week and this week is there is $65k less to make and a smaller window for cash making if he is a failure. If you want him and believe he keeps the spot, you have my blessing.
Nikorima is 100% a risk, and I am actually going the AKP direction this week for myself because one of my lessons from last year was to chase upside on cheap outside backs rather than going the “safe route”. I always prefer to think of decisions as “range of outcomes” rather than tight windowed predictions, and make decisions based on my goals for that player. In this case, its rapid cash generation, so AKP is my man. If I needed a top 17 safe scorer, it would be Nikorima.
Regarding Izaac, my concern with him is that his minutes were inflated due to Brimson and Foran injuries, and I think the first match is a closer indication of his Titans role. Happy to let the bench forward with low job security through to the keeper but if we see another 40 minute game he will be a potential buy for me next week.
As for SJ, I am not confident that any team other than the Panthers represents a concern for the Warriors ability to execute their game plan competently this year. Like we learned from Nicho last year, a 90%+ kick metre, goal kicking, running half in a top 8 side is fantasy gold. He has every bit of potential to be a top (5?) half this year, and I wouldn’t be selling him until at least round 21 barring injury, suspension or a serious collapse in form. He plays 5 of 6 major byes this year, which is massive for overall coaches.
Lastly, just wanted to say thank you for your well thought our comment, and I look forward to further conversation.
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Mark mate,
Thanks for the effort in your response lad. If anyone owes you a beer I do. I’ll figure out how to get you that beer without paying it all to WordPress. Pint coming.
I’ve only got on you lads this season. Sounds like you’ve earned the right to silverback over past mistakes. I was more interested in what it will look like when you lead me astray. It’s worked well so far.
In terms of Hosking I jumped on him last week. I like the chasing upside approach.
Mate that’s a great shout about Iszac. I am interested in him due to the rubbish cheapies kicking around and will keep a close eye on him this weekend.
Thank you for the SJ analysis. Genuinely appreciate it. You make a great case especially regarding game management as the dominant half. I will be holding, but if I lose faith in your strategy I’ll give you a shout.
I think I’m going to save trades and loop doorey to get a look at warbrick or play AKP this week. Would love to know the target number for a loop? Or do we chase upside? For me 40 is a no brainer but the 30s. If the big man gets their averageI’m going to be struggling to make a call.
Appreciate your work bro.
Last word – thanks for calling out the Mental Health comments a few weeks back
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