Josh Curran burst onto the scene in 2021 after registering 6 career matches prior, all from the interchange and none more than 32 minutes, to turn in an impressive average of 52 points in only 70 minutes on average.
Curran displayed an odd scoring pattern for the position, averaging over 39 tackles despite spending all but 5 games on an edge, but averaged under 80 metres per game with only 3 performances that eclipsed 90 metres. This is extremely poor by edge back row standards, with even noted slack runner Tariq Sims averaging 15+ more metres per game and eclipsing the 100+ metre mark on 11 occasions.
To start the year, Curran will likely be the “Tohu Harris”, with a 65-80 minute role averaging about 75 minutes per game where he swaps between the middle and edge of the field as a ball player. I suppose the best place to start then would be his key stats with Tohu in the team v out of the team and the Fantasy implications.
|TOHU IN||TOHU OUT||IMPACT|
|TKL BUST||0.9||2.3||+2.8 FPT|
|MISS TKL||2.9||3.3||-0.8 FPT|
|FANTASY||0.68 PPM||0.76 PPM*||+12 FPT|
As you can see, without Tohu Harris, Josh Curran is an absolute weapon for Fantasy, averaging about 56.7 fantasy points in the old scoring system, which would have been good for a top 5ish option in the mids or edges, and with the dual he would no doubt be a gun option. He could get a small bump with the new scoring, but not enough to move a needle in either direction.
Unfortunately for potential Curran managers, Tohu Harris is going to return, some time between weeks 3 and magic round in week 10. At that point, Curran will return to his post out on the edge permanently, where he will see his PPM drop back to the 0.68 we see above. Even in a full time 80 minute role, which he did not have in 2021 with Tohu present, that would only be 54 points, bringing him back to where his BE currently sits. In the more likely scenario he is rested for a few games of 65-70 mins, that average pops back to the high 40s/very low 50s mark, negating all the points you made in the early weeks of no Tohu.
Because of that early scoring, his “season long” average will look higher once Tohu returns, filling managers with hope that he may return to his scoring and making him near impossible to sell from a mental aspect. More to the point though, even if you do sell, you spend a trade after making POTENTIALLY $50k or so, which as we know is not worth it.
The other alarming thing with Curran is that he managed to register under 50 points in more than 50% (8/14) of his appearances in 2022, and was bailed out by a few random monster scores including a tryless 83 points where he registered more than a quarter of the tackle busts he made for the entire season.
In order to be a season long option, Curran would need to do two things:
- Secure a consistent 75+ minute role (which is hard to do in a team with Tohu Harris, Matt Lodge and Addin Fonua-Blake playing big middle minutes)
- Increase his run metres by at least 20 metres per game out on that edge while not losing any of his tackling numbers.
Personally, my expectation is that Curran will start the season performing well for those that purchase him, but he will end up hurting them in the long run gaining no value and putting up inconsistent scores. Therefore, I will label him a TRAP.