After years of being THE elite fantasy fullback, the human pin ball machine James Tedesco was knocked off his pedestal last year by a man possessed in the form of Tom Trbojevic’s record breaking year. Now, Fanhub has come for him as well reducing the value of tackle busts and the ceiling of Tedesco in the process reducing his 2021 average of 60.7 (70+ min starts) down to 55 when adjusted for new scoring. It’s not all doom and gloom for Teddy here, there are some positives after only scoring 1 try from round 5 onwards last year that seems likely to increase especially with the Roosters in for seemingly a big season sitting 3rd in premiership favouritism with the return of Luke Keary.
Despite the potential of a backwards step on years past coming for Tedesco, it hasn’t deterred coaches with his ownership currently sitting at around 17%. Is this high ownership justified by the likely increase in tries despite the reduction tackle busts or is he for a down year with coaches being pulled in by the name brand and 300k savings vs Tom Trbojevic? Let’s take a look at our projection for Teddy.
| STAT | ’21 | PROJ | FPTS |
| TRIES | 40% | 60-70% | 4.8-5.6 |
| TRY ASSIST | 110% | 70-80% | 3.5-4 |
| LINEBREAK | 80% | 80% | 3.2 |
| LBA | 110% | 80% | 1.6 |
| TKLE BUST | 7.2 | 7 | 14 |
| GOALS | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| TACKLES | 4.7 | 5 | 5 |
| OFFLOADS | 1.1 | 1 | 3.5 |
| RUN MTRS | 190 | 190-210 | 19-21 |
| OTHER POS | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| FDO’S | 40% | 30% | 0.6 |
| TO TKLE | 20% | 20% | 1 |
| NEGATIVES | -5.2 | – 5 | – 5 |
| TOTAL | 55.4 | 54.0-57.3 |
It’s pretty grim reading for Teddy unfortunately with at best only 1 point of value here. The deflation of tackle busting has moved what would be a low to mid 60s average in years past into the mid to high 50s. You could potentially argue Teddy is in for a Turbo like break out with the return of all the Roosters attacking weapons but I can’t project for that unfortunately. His best try scoring rate for a season in the past 5 years is 70% while his try assist rate with Keary is roughly 75%.
I’ve got no doubt Tedesco will be an end of season keeper and post-origin target for fantasy coaches. As it currently stands I’ve got Teddy ranked 4th in my positional draft rankings (coming soon) though could easily finish 3rd behind Pap and Turbo. Personally, I’m of the opinion Cleary and Papenhuyzen are must haves for round (assuming all fit) so can you justify spending another 695k on a WFB when there’s so many cheap options around? I can’t do it but if he does have a huge start to the year I’ll tip my cap to the 17% of you who took the punt.
-Ryan
Amateurs Fantasy Sports 