Young Brisbane product Toby Sexton shot onto the scene for the Titans last year in relief of an injured Jamal Fogarty. Well, coach Holbrook and Big Mal liked what they saw so much they’ve let their former captain go to the Raiders and now Toby takes the reigns full time in 2022. Sexton finds himself priced at 600k with a break even of 48, getting a slight discount on his 56 average in 2021 (adjusted for new scoring) and is in a similar boat to Nicho Hynes when it comes to the round 1 fantasy side discussion. Currently at only 4.3% ownership, let’s take a deep dive into the Titans new man decide if he is an oasis in the fantasy desert or a mirage.
The Titans have a brand new spine with AJ Brimson shifting to 5/8 to accommodate Jayden Campbell and partner with Sexton in the halves. While we only have a 4 game sample of Sexton from last season, he also featured in 12 70+min appearances in QLD Cup to round out our projection. The first thing that stood out to me was Sexton’s above average tackle counts for a half with him averaging 23 tackles per game in the NRL and 22 in those QLD Cup appearances. We should also expect an immediate increase in kick metres for Sexton from his 230m average of 2021 when taking an even split with Ash Taylor to a total nearing 400m per game this season. Brimson has never been a noted in play kicker with 17 halves appearances across 2018/19 for an average of 80m per game and only exceeding 100m 5 out of 17 times.
| STAT | ’21 | PROJ | FPTS |
| TRIES | 30% | 25% | 2 |
| TRY ASSIST | 50% | 60-70% | 3-3.5 |
| LINEBREAK | 30% | 30% | 1.2 |
| LBA | 30% | 50% | 1 |
| TKLE BUST | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 |
| GOALS | 3.8 | 3 | 6 |
| TACKLES | 23 | 19-22 | 20-22 |
| OFFLOADS | 0.8 | 1 | 3.5 |
| RUN MTRS | 86 | 70-85 | 7-8 |
| KICK MTRS | 229 | 340-400 | 11-13 |
| FDO’S | 80% | 80% | 1.6 |
| TO TKLE | 50% | 25% | 1 |
| NEGATIVES | -8 | – 8 | -8 |
| TOTAL | 56.1 | 52.3-57.8 |
The reliable base of 30 to 35 points from tackles and kick metres alone should give Sexton at least 4 points of value with upside to tickle the underside of a 60 average if some extra attacking stats fall his way. If Sexton was to fall in the middle of that projection range it would likely be good enough to see him around the 5th or 6th best fantasy half in a season where the more kick metre reliant guys (Mitch Moses, Adam Reynolds etc.) are likely to go backwards.
I think many are concerned that Sexton may be a trap based purely on the fact we only had a small sample from last year like Jayden Campbell (who is a trap), but I believe that sample is reflective of him as a player. His averages in QLD Cup were basically the same as what he was able to replicate in first grade and we’ve seen in recent years with guys like Harry Grant, Sam Walker, Reece Walsh etc. that reserve grade stats can often be a good guide of what to expect when it comes to first grade statistical output. While he’s currently in my side, I’m still undecided if I’ll start with Sexton. I think the value is certainly there as well as the potential to be a cut price keeper but positional considerations need to be made when 46% of you already have Cleary, likely Ilias and now possibly Kurt Mann as well.
– Ryan
Amateurs Fantasy Sports 