Amateurs Fantasy Sports

THE NATHAN CLEARY EDITION

With Nathan Cleary registering a category 1 concussion in round 3 after only 7 minutes, he will miss at least one round and have some significant money to lose. For coaches who have burned a number of trades and/or have other outs to deal with he is certainly not a “must sell”, but for those who have a choice this week, where do the tactics sit on the hold vs sell equation?

HOLD VS SELL ANALYSIS

Cleary will miss round 4 for sure, and has a bye in round 11 before missing rounds 12, 15 and 18 for Origin, plus any potential rests. This means that – at minimum – he will miss 4 of his next 12 fixtures. This assumes that he has no delays moving through the concussion protocols, with his round 5 fixture against the cowboys falling on day 15.

Even with the assumption he plays in round 5, he will return with a break even of 100 exactly, and be priced at $779k. Using Rugby League Pro we can track his projected BE, but before we do that I would like to sanity check our Cleary average points projections….

The above is Cleary on a year by year basis, games where he plays at least 71 mins at kicks for at least 50% of the kick metres (to remove injuries).

Since the departure of Maloney (and the introduction of the “6 again), Cleary has consistently been up around 500 kick metres, except for 2024 when he relinquished some of the responsibility. With Cole, we expect it to return back up, but in our preseason projections there is one thing we didn’t factor.

Over the last few years the Panthers have lost Jerome Luai, James Fisher-Harris, Sunia Turuva, Spencer Leniu, Zac Hosking, Stephen Crichton, Viliame Kikau, J’Maine Hopgood, Api Koroisau, Matt Burton and Kurt Capewell among others. At some point, the losses have to create some dents in the armour, and while there is no doubt that the Panthers are still a top 8 side, it may be that the extremely high end Nathan could be in danger. After all, he averaged 67.5 in 2022, what is to stop that happening again?

If we run two paths for Clearys price drops, based on a 72 average and 68 average, this is what the outcome looks like (keeping in mind you have to add a week for the missed round 4 matchup)…

In the situation of a 68 average, Cleary bottoms out at around 735k in round 7. If he managed to average 72, his bottom happens in round 6, and only at $746k – hardly a concern for holders in either situation really.

The main concern for coaches is not Clearys price as such, but the opportunity cost of what you could be doing with that money next week and then while he is dropping in price, only for him to then miss a string of games over the Origin period…

ROUND	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
MISSED?	X	X	?		X	?		X	?

For head to head coaches this is not really a concern, but for overall coaches even in the best case scenario of a 72 average, Cleary will score 360 points in 9 weeks, where you could get 7 games out of most players across that same span, meaning as long as the player averaged 52+ they will outscore Cleary in that span in total points.

If we look at it wholistically, Toby Couchman is coming off his bye, and looks primed for a 55 average rest of season, playing 70 and 62 minutes respectively in the opening rounds which looks to be part of the plan. Couchman was flagged in our preseason as a breakout candidate and seems to be following through, and has the reserve grade stats to back it up, averaging 57 in 62 mins across 23/24 when playing 50+ mins.

From round 4 to round 18 inclusive, Couchman will play 13/15 games, compared to Cleary who will play 10 at most. Looking at the total points…

55 average x 13 games = 715 points

68-72 average x 10 games = 680-720 points

This equation is similar for a player like Corey Horsburgh, who actually will play 14 games in that span.

The other factor in this is that someone like Couchman is going to save you around $200k on Cleary (albeit cost you a trade), and likely be a season long DPP keeper player for you. That $200k could help you turn a red dot of say Tom Duffy (25% owned still) into a cash cow or mid ranger you missed, instead of sitting in your emergencies for a third of the weeks.

The other factor to consider is Clearys injury history, as below…

Like it or not, Cleary is an injury risk, and a big one, with chronic hamstring and shoulder injuries plaguing the last few years. Add to that this early concussion, and the heavy load of the upcoming state of origin period, and we have a ticking time bomb of rests and/or missed games with injury.

Assuming he makes it that far, Cleary looks set for a rest after Origin 2, with the Panthers playing in Auckland on Saturday at 3pm in the 2nd game of the round. While the Panthers often back up, this extended travel may just be a bridge too far for the Panthers stars, which takes him to 6 missed games.

The case to hold Cleary is fairly straight forward – he is easily a top 5 overall scorer, probably top 3 and potentially #1. He opens priced at $779k, which is approximately a price of 57 at at worst shows 10 points of value. Cleary has gone 90+ in 15 of his last 71 games where he played 70+ mins, so there is theoretically an approx 21% chance he barely loses any money on his return or even gains money despite the monster break even.

On the flip side of that, he also has 14 performances of 55 or less in that 71 game sample, and historically starts slower, averaging over 9 points per game less in the opening 8 rounds of the year than the balance of the season over the last three seasons in 70+ mins games.

His return schedule looks like…

Rd5 – Cowboys (Sydney)

Rd6 – Dolphins (QLD)

Rd7 – Roosters (Sydney)

Rd8 – Manly (Sydney)

Rd9 – Broncos (QLD)

Rd10 – Cowboys (QLD)

Its a fairly balanced schedule depending on which Cowboys team turns up, having a mix of away games and different opponents. The big factor is how long teams can keep the monster Cleary scores in the bag. If Cleary were to dish up say even a 55 average over his first two weeks he would end up below 700k, and still have a 65+ break even. There is also the nightmare story for holders, where he returns and gets injured, though that risk exists with every player the chronic shoulder and hamstring adds an extra level.

Ultimately, the decision to sell Cleary is a calculated cash generation and overall points manoeuvre that has disastrous consequences if you get it wrong. Anyone looking to sell needs to be prepared to spend another trade to bring him back in sooner rather than later, likely before his bye. That said, with several mid range players such as Seyfarth, Whyte and Mamouzelous peaking around that time, you may have a perfect opportunity to cash one out and upgrade another to Cleary, while pocketing the $50k approx in Cleary lost cash, potentially more overall points, and all at the cost of a trade you needed to make anyway (if you don’t bring in Nathan, you are still trading those peaked players to another gun anyway and just choosing Cleary – so the bringing back in isn’t an extra trade).

For teams looking to optimise a “save trades” approach, holding Cleary is the way to go, particularly if you have other fires to deal with and/or have spent all four of your trades so far. When you boil it down, he is an elite gun keeper who is already at a massive discount, and will be back up around $900k before you know it more than likely. The last time Cleary was under $800k was round 1, 2020 so you know that this is not a long term state of affairs.

AMATEUR MARK