First off we’ll be covering some of those big names its time to have a cold hard look at and sell. Maybe these guys have won you championships in past years and you are holding on for sentimental reasons. It’s entirely your choice but we’ll do our best to give you the important information you need to make the best informed decisions.
The old saying that “a picture says a thousand words” is true for fantasy owners of Hopkins this year. Chances are you’re pulling your hair out after most likely missing the playoffs, off the back of his season. Hopkins touchdown uptick this season help mask his true lack of production. His first year in Arizona produced 160 targets for 115 receptions, 1407 yards and 6 tds playing all 16 games. This year over 10 games he only had 64 targets 42 receptions 572 yards and 8tds. He had 2 multiple touchdown games which masked the fact he only got 10+ targets once and only had 6+ receptions in 3 of those and never topping 87 yards or more this year. Even if he played all 17 games he was only on pace for 109 targets 71 receptions and only 972 yards, he was looking at around 13 tds but touchdown production is a hard thing to factor into future production. His target share from last year to this year was way down from 29% down to 20%. He will only be 30 next season but whilst he’s still considered at top 12 dynasty wide receiver according to Fantasy Pro’s, the emergence of other weapons on the team like Rondale Moore its better to sell a year early then a year too late. PRICE CHECK Look for a mid to late 22 first with a young development player. A contending team may feel he’s the final piece for a championship run
Before you stop reading this article out of disgust for tarnishing the great name of George Kittle, this is not a “I hate George Kittle” article. We love George but its so hard to pick a tight end to sell and I can’t in good conscious tell you to sell Kelce whilst Mahomes has two legs and his right arm. I also can not tell you to sell Darren Waller whilst the next best receiving weapon in Vegas is Hunter Renfrow and the defence can’t stop opposing teams. The unfortunate answer is Kittle. Trey Lance seems likely to take over the starting next season. They didn’t give up future draft capital to trade for Lance to not find out what they have. Unless he takes a huge leap forward in year 2 that offence is going to be limited by Lance’s inability to stretch the field with his arm, it will be even more difficult to support (fantasy wise) all the weapons San Fran has at its disposal. In the 2 games kittle has had Lance as his QB he has gone for a total of 5 receptions for 69 yards and no tds. The sample size is small but the signs aren’t positive. Kittle will still be a good option but with his late season explosion of production, it’s a great time to sell high on the standout tight end. If you are contending I would not sell Kittle or any top 10 tight end in fact. PRICE CHECK TE Premium- A young replacement tight end(Knox, Freiermuth, Irv Smith Jr. or similar) and a mid 22 first Standard PPR- Mid to early 22 first
Allen Robinson II
This really is a no brainer, Robinson has fallen off a cliff and for him it couldn’t have com at a worse time. Robinson is going to be an unrestricted free agent this off season and with his extreme lack of production chances are he’ll have to settle for a short term or small money or both, most likely in an undesirable location such as Detroit or back to the Jags. This is purely speculation of course but in past years Robinson has been unwilling to take a discounted salary to assist the Bears, so its unlikely he now backflips at only 28 and takes a big pay cut to play in a contending team where he has his best chance to be fantasy relevant again. When you look deeper into Robinson’s problem this year with his targets per game down from 9.4 targets per game down to 5.6 and his red zone targets down from 19 this year only 6. His completed air yards last year of 6.3 yards per target was top 3 and this year he’s down to 4.5 ypt which is outside the top 70. His contested ball style play is going to be a detriment to his longevity as we’ve seen with similar players like Dez Bryant, Aj Green and the late Demarius Thomas fall of a cliff fast like we’ve seen from Robinson this year. The emergence of 2nd year standout Darnell Mooney only highlights his poor production even more with only 56 targets, 32 receptions, 353 yards and only 1 td compared to Mooney who’s had 10 games with 5 plus receptions and 3 games over 120 yards and 4 tds this season. PRICE CHECK Look to a contender who might be willing to stash and see if he hits again. Try to get a late 22 2nd rookie pick for Robinson. Good luck!
This may be an unpopular opinion but the variety of “CMC’s” injuries are starting to mount. Week 2 2020 he missed 6 games with a high ankle sprain on his right side. Then week 9 he sprained his a/c joint in his shoulder missing another 4 games before returning week 14 only to succumb to a groin strain missing the rest of the year. this year the injury bug hits again missing 5 games with a hamstring strain missing 5 games only to have his season ended week 12 with another high ankle sprain but this time to his left side. His numbers when healthy haven’t really dropped off. We forgave his 2020 injury plagued season but it can no longer be ignored you spent a premium to draft CMC or in a trade and the chances are you won’t get what you paid for him but its most diffidently time to move on from the Stanford stud. Our resident Physio Lucas Walsh suggests the calcification to his ankles will only hamper his ability to get back to where he once was along with the soft tissue injuries, history repeating itself as McCaffrey being RB1 are unlikely. Whilst he has a chance to be a strong fantasy option in 2022 its best to get maximum return now before he’s the next Todd Gurley PRICE CHECK Whilst it will be a hard sell right now we still believe you can squeeze 2 early 22 rookie picks as a minimum.
With these buy offerings we aren’t going to sell you on the blue chip studs. The ship to buy the likes of Jonathon Taylor and Ja’Marr Chase has sailed. We’re going to tell you about some of the lower ranked guys you can still buy at a reasonable price and get the upside of being a top option at there positions
The San Fran rbbc (running back by committee) days seem over with Elijah Mitchell getting over 60% of offensive snaps in all but one game this season and he still had 27 touches in that one game. He has missed games though the year for various reasons but has walked straight back into a full workload upon return. At this point draft capital is irrelevant and Trey Sermon should be considered as a Mitchell handcuff more so then a stash and see. Whenever Jeff Wilson or Sermon have been feature backs this year they haven’t seen the volume that Elijah has, this could be a game script issue but we suspect its more that they don’t believe in the other backs talent and have better weapons out of the backfield with Deebo Samuels and Brandon Aiyuk very capable ball runners. His 4.6 ypc is very encouraging with four games with 100+ yards rushing from a late round rookie is very exciting for the future. PRICE CHECK Realistically it will require some used car salesman antics to convince the Mitchell owner to sell but a mid to early first should be a nice compensation for a guy most got in the 3rd/4th round in rookie drafts last year
At the Fantasy Amateurs we are big Tua lovers and we aren’t ashamed to tell you about him, but here is why. He’s taken a shaky o line and a worse then average run game and put the Dolphins on his back with a 7 game win streak heading into week 17. Tua’s 2021 season stats have been masked by the fact he missed 3 weeks and barely played there week 2 game with a rib injury. His 17 game pace would be 3976 yards 26 tds and 15 ints. These numbers aren’t MVP level numbers but if we dig deeper Tua ranks inside the top 10 in the NFL in every advanced accuracy stats for quarterback play including being the most accurate QB inside the redzone. What’s more impressive is the cattle he’s had around him, with advanced metrics suggesting they have the 29th ranked supporting cast. Big offseason wide out acquisition Will Fuller has been a monumental failure catching 4 catches for 26 yards over 2 games where he succumb to a hand injury after serving his drug suspension he received last season in Houston. Waddle’s most definitely stepped up in his rookie season, but behind him all the others have been inconsistent and really, just lacking the talent to be NFL starters. According to Over The Cap the Dolphins have 74 million in cap space next year. They will most likely look to add another wideout and strengthen the o line and with Mike Gesicki another year better there’s a lot to like about the future in Miami and therefore Tua should greatly benefit from more help and more stability. He’s probably never going to be a top 5 fantasy QB or top 5 in the NFL for that matter but as your qb2 in 2 QB and superflex leagues he’s more easily attainable then other names around that QB 10-15 range like Ryan Tannehill, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields PRICE CHECK 1QB- Mid to late 2nd even on draft day should be more then enough SF- As this years rookie QB class isn’t that enticing, as of right now, a mid 22 1st round should be considered a steal
I’m sure this years fantasy owners would disagree Calvin Ridley is a buy for the 2022 season, but hear me out. Out of the gate the Falcons, Matt Ryan were not good and whilst Ridley’s numbers weren’t great he had 52 targets through 5 games before stepping away from the game because of mental health issues. In lies the risky business in going out to acquire Ridley. There are a number of questions surrounding his return to football, the one thing not in question is his ability on the field. The Falcons season would most definitely played out different if Ridley was available all year with 64, 63 and 90 receptions in his first 3 seasons with 1374 yards and 9 tds last year. With Julio out of town in 21′ big expectations fell on Ridley in year 4. Maybe this contributed to the decline in Ridley’s mental state of mind but at 28 and being he’s an elite route runner there’s potentially a lot of top level fantasy output left in Calvin. Is his time up in Atlanta? Unlikely, Atlanta has already picked up his 5th year option which is an 11 million fully guaranteed salary for the 22 season. If Ridley is healthy and motivated to be an NFL player going forward he’ll want to put a solid 22′ season together so he can get paid in the future and this blip on his career is soon forgotten. It’s a risky proposition trying to trade for Ridley but now’s the time to get him at a discount and potentially reap the rewards next season. PRICE CHECK Being there is still the possibility he doesn’t play NFL again as there’s been no update from either Ridley himself or the Falcons so tread lightly. The Amateurs feel no more then a mid 22 first is worth risking for Ridley unless there’s news either way, if you feel the owner is asking to much just sit and wait
Irv Smith Jr.
After a flashy finish to 2020, the 21 season many expected to be Smith’s breakout campaign before a torn meniscus in his knee ruled him out this year. In his place Tyler Conklin finished the the te15 through 17 weeks garnering a healthy 83 targets. Considering Conklin’s athletic limitations (4.8 40 yard dash compared to Smith’s 4.6 40 yard time) and the 3 previous seasons he’d only been targeted 43 times in total. Along with the expectation soon to be 32 year old Adam Thielen’s role may be reduced going forward. The much more athletically gifted tight end in Smith should receive a fair amount of those 83 targets and then some, it isn’t unreasonable to project 100 targets for Irv Smith in 22′. There are a lot of favourable reasons to be excited about Irv Smith Jr. in 2022 and beyond. PRICE CHECK Being the Irv Smith owner most likely sat on him all year it may take a mid to early 2nd round pick and some persuasion to do so in any format
These are the guys who maybe didn’t give you return on there draft capital this year or was a key component down the stretch you didn’t win your league. Don’t give up on these guys just yet!
There is a number of reasons you are ready to sell Saquon for a open, stale bag of Doritos but please don’t give up hope yet. Yes he started the year injured and missed 4 games through the middle of the year but since returning from the week 10 bye he’s scored 9 or more fantasy points in all but 2 games and this is with some of the worst quarterback play in the entire NFL. The Giants have been decimated by injuries across the entire offence and with Daniel Jones out and Kadarius Toney in and out and Golladay totally ineffective its been all on Barkley’s shoulders to move the sticks for the Giants. Jones had shown signs of progression before getting injured and the emergence of Toney being able to stretch the field. With a huge drop off of red zone touches in 21 with only 2 touches on the season, with an improved offence this number should get back into double digits next year. This upcoming season being a make or break season for many in the Giants organization, we expect a bounce back season from Saquon in 2022. If you must sell on name value alone you should be able to get a mid to late first
If you’ve been watching the Raiders play of late you’ll notice Hunter Renfrow has been putting up career numbers. It’s no coincidence that this rich vein of form has come from week 13 onwards after Waller succumb to a knee injury in week 12. Waller is undoubtedly the teams number one option and whilst Renfrow has been impressive posting three straight 100+ yardage games. These outstanding performances could have easily have been Waller’s state lines if healthy. He started the year off solid and has still averaged over 15 fantasy points per game even after leaving the cowboys contest early. Waller should get back to being a top 5 tight end next year so don’t panic sell this fantasy stud just yet. If you must sell he’s still worth an early to mid first round pick in all formats
Big Ben’s career is a wrap, he has had a HOF career and achieved so much but his noodle arm couldn’t go on anymore and it couldn’t benefit anyone more then Chase Claypool. As long as Dwayne Haskins isn’t promoted to there starter “Mapletron” should see an uptick in deep targets and red zone targets with an upgrade at QB, both those categories he was significantly down on, deep targets in 20 was 31 this year 20 red zone targets was 13 in 20′ this year 11 as well as average depth of target(ADOT) was down from 13.3 to 11.7 in 21. We won’t even mention the touchdown regression from 11 total tds in 2020 to only 1 td this season. Juju was only on a 1 year deal before getting hurt. With salary cap going elsewhere across the team and the likelihood they’ll try acquiring a high end QB via trade or free agency they most likely let Juju Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. The proud Steel city doesn’t accept mediocrity and have talent right across both sides of the ball, developing a QB doesn’t seem likely in this win now situation. Claypool’s production will be a key denominator in improving the Steelers lackluster offence in 22′. If you must sell a mid to late first rounder is a fair price.
We spoke about Russell Wilson on a recent podcast and after looking deeper in Wilson’s season maybe we’ve been a touch harsh. He is down from last year in every major QB category but he’s still QB13 on a points per game basis(17.2ppg). The narrative is much worse on Wilson then is reality and selling Russ right now would be a disaster. There has been a lot of media reports surrounding head coach Pete Carroll and Wilson. Where there’s smoke there’s fire and we feel there will be massive changes in the Seahawks organisation. Weather Russ moves on via trade or Carroll is replaced as HC, changes in the front office is a certainty. In potential negotiations in a trade deal all these factors will play against you, but again reality is a change for Russ will most likely be a positive for his career and his fantasy outlook. At 33 there’s still a lot of quality football left in Russell Wilson and with all previous 9 years his worst fantasy production was QB11 in his rookie season followed by QB8, 3, 3, 9, 1, 9, 3 and 6 last year as well as not missing a single game until this years thumb injury his durability is second to none. If you must trade Wilson in superflex he’s still worth a mid to late first and a mid second in single QB leagues.
In summary, any player at the right price is a buy or a sell. It’s best to leave your team bias or personal opinions to real life or you may never truly be successful at winning fantasy leagues. Every fantasy manager will value players differently so some of our evaluations may not reflect your league accurately so use this just as a guideline and a potential tool to building a successful dynasty team. Happy trading amateurs!