The Keebra Connection
Following recent reports that the Keebra Park connection of Tanah Boyd and David Fifita will be established on the Titans right edge, we take a look at the fantasy prospects of the young half to see if we can find some value…
The stats from 2020/21 are not great for Boyd, who showed us 30.7 points per game in his 70+ minute halves starts. This is made up of 19 tackles and 69 (nice) metres, with only about 100 kick metres per game, no goals, and a smattering of attacking stats. The range of scoring also is a worry, with a ceiling of 40 and a floor under 20.
2022 we see a marked improvement, increasing to 21 tackles per game while missing about 0.5 tackles less, a small reduction in the run metres and attacking stats, but the addition of a lot more work in the kicking game, increasing to 230 kick metres per game and taking over the goal kicking. In the final 5 matches, Boyd managed 350 kick metres per game (around 75%-80% of kick metres) and 23/26 goals (82%). In these 5 matches his average was 48.2 fantasy points, with only 1 try and 2 try assists.
Partnering Foran and Brimson in the spine, I think 75% of the kick metres seems about right. As Ryan always says, the Titans issue has never been putting on points, scoring 70-80 more points in 2022 than the teams above and below them on the ladder, so the goal kicking and attacking opportunities should remain consistent.
To be as fair as possible projecting Boyd, I will use his career base and attacking stats, and add the kicking stats. This is how that looks:
There is some room for improvement here on the attacking front with the development of combination, but the strong base combination of standard base and kicking makes Boyd a screaming buy at the price of $479K, which is a BE of around 33. There should be around 15 points value for Boyd, which is desperately needed in a tough hooker position. The only real downside for Boyd is that he has a round 5 bye to go with his round 13 bye, but the potential cash generation here cannot be overlooked. Borderline must own.