Nailing Hammers 2023 projection?
Is it finally the year of the hammer? After moving to the Dolphins, he becomes an interesting prospect for coaches looking for reliable DPP options to plug into their backlines. And while I’m not expecting him to light the world on fire, my views on the Hammer have done a full 180 after a quick look.
There are two sides to the tale. Ideally, we want Hammer at CTR and the reason why is quite simple. Priced at 25.7, in non-injury affected games he averages 38 points, easily giving you the 10 points you’re after. You can also live with the comfort of the Hammer being quite base stat friendly (24.6) and we know what kind of attack he is capable of. At CTR he has a 75% Try Scoring Rate and averages 1 line break per game He does also give you -6 points in negatives but realistically these are classic CTR position stats. Its also worth noting that. These are the kind of numbers you really want to be seeing when spending 371K on an outside back. In short, it’s a much easier wave to ride.
Now we move to scenario 2 and what we think is more likely. Hammer at fullback. This is not for the faint hearted and a rollercoaster ride of a lifetime. With a floor in 80 min games of 7 (79 mins but meh) and we must mention the slight increase in his second worst game playing 80 mins of 9, it’s likely that this could be the very definition of a slow burn cash cow. Both his Try Scoring Rate (36%) and Line Break averages (57%) are basically halved per game, and I can confidently put this down to my issue with him last year as an option. He just doesn’t return the ball or attack the line with the same vigour. But with a career average of 32 fullback there is still some value if you’re willing to accept the Amateurs Game Theory. It must be said that at that price, for a DPP fullback available at CTR the upside if things swing your way should outweigh the downside.
A quick evaluation and Final Verdict for both scenarios.
Hammer at CTR- 11-13 points of value=BUY
Hammer at FB- 6-8 points of value-CAUTION AND HAVE A DEFRIBRILATOR ON STANDBY
INTERN BILENT
Amateurs Fantasy Sports 
Will these guys win a game all year? I can’t justify picking a back from the worst team I’ve seen in a long time, and he’s in 33% of teams? If he was 250k yeah, but priced at 26?
LikeLike
We are backing the Dolphins to surprise many people and end the season in the 10th-12th range. They should win their fair share of games, and Hamiso put up a 33 average in a terrible Cowboys team pre 2022. Expecting him to have his share of bad scores, but also hes one of only a handful of guys in the NRL capable of posting an 80+ game.
LikeLike