Christian Welch (MID): MELBOURNE STORM

A tale of injury woe…

Following multiple ACL injuries, Welch returned in 2022 only to blow his Achilles after 41 points in 61 minutes in round 1. Will 2023 finally yield success for the lost Hemmsworth brother?

With Dad’s army (Felise Kaufusi, Kenny and Jesse Bromwich) departing for the Dolphins and Brandon Smith off to the Roosters, and Dale Finucane leaving the year prior, there is no doubt that Christian Welch is the leader of this Melbourne Storm forward pack. We explored the impact of this at length last year, and won’t rehash it again.

Last year, Welch was priced even higher than this year, and he would have become a borderline “must own” if Fanhub followed their own rules and give him a 25% haircut on his 41 point game for having only played limited games. Unfortunately, Welch has actually been rounded up because “reasons”.

Priced in the low 30s, Welch would have just had to be bog average to return 10 points value. At this price, he needs to again become a keeper, a much taller order – but certainly not out of the realms of possibility. Realistically, everything that we said in our 2022 article still applies, with even more responsibility being put on the shoulders of Welch.

The Amateurs consensus have Welch projected from 47-51 points per game depending on who you ask, and with a price in the mid $600s it is more likely you can find a better option for the same price or cheaper. This year, with the extra team, there are a lot of great middle options due to the fact that there are some extra minutes to go around – see our game theory article for more info!

As always, the injury risks are there. That said, the best time to take a risk is early in the year, because you have more time to benefit from it if you are right and more opportunities to make up for it if you are wrong. Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favour.


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