DPP centre hero?

Could this guy be the answer to our centre dilemma? Smith is a solid player with excellent job security in a Melbourne storm system that seems to never fail. With the low stocks in backs at Melbourne he doesn’t have a lot of competition for position which is a major positive.  Let’s check his stats out.

Please note we have taken out his injury affected games, finals and his stats from the Bulldogs. So, we are only including his stats from Melbourne storm in 2021 and 2022. Due to Smith missing a lot of the 2022 season our sample size is still 31 games.

 Avg PointsAvg BaseAvg AttackAvg Negatives

What a surprise! A centre that relies on attacking stats, who would have thought? While Smith doesn’t stand out as an instant buy, he has a decent base average. The 2022 stats are a little worrying with Smith regressing in all his stats. We can probably blame this on Melbourne Storm being very hit and miss throughout 2022. They started the season with some very close games until round 4. This is where they went on an absolute run, scoring 270 points in 6 games at an average on 45 points per game. Unfortunately, in this time Smith only scored 1 try. With a lot of the attach going through Papenhuyzen.

The blessing for the start of 2023 is Paps will be missing for the early rounds which means Melbourne will need to find their attacking stats elsewhere. Storm has a decent opening draw only playing 1 top 8 team in the opening 4 rounds (Eels) and 3 top 8 teams in the opening 8 rounds before their bye in RD9.

Let’s get to the nitty gritty.

Here we have a guy priced at $372k (26 average). With a base of 23.9 and Storm average of 33.8. Without even thinking too hard that’s immediately 7.8 points of value. Add in their favourable opening rounds draw I think Smith is an excellent option to start the season. Even with Smith staying with his current stats and having no improvement then you are still going to make money. Only negative is that he relies on attacking stats. But as we all know, Melbourne love to attack.

VERDICT – we are split between BUY/CAUTION


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