Grant the #1 hooker in 2023?
Harry Grant has managed to find himself in 16.1% of Fantasy Coaches. Priced at 59.1 and working with a severely depleted pack in comparison to his last two years with the Storm let’s see if we can justify following the crowd…
I think the easiest way to compare would be to look at what his output is like with a forward pack that has some similarities as we know this has not been the case since his return to Melbourne and we are very lucky… enter the 2020 Wests Tigers.
We do need to keep in mind the PVL Ball year that was 2021, but it is also important to remember that Harry Grant is a million miles an hour type of player. He was able to produce 60.4 points (57.7 in base) in a tick under 74 mins a game and averaging 10.7 points in attack. Moving to last season where he assumed the role has the dominant hooker again, his average stays the same although his base stats dropped down to 48.6, but his attacking stats jumped to a whopping 19.2 points a game – which I’m willing to put down to the amount of attacking options he had in his forward pack and the go forward they were able to produce every game. His TSR is similar, but his average TA per game increased by 0.4 when leaving the Tigers for the Storm which I don’t think is a coincidence, so I think we could conservatively project a drop there of 2 points as a starting point but apart from that there are too many consistencies to be able to add or subtract anything else from him. We all know how dangerous Harry Grant is in the opposition 10. The question is…can the Storm pack replicate the cohesion and aggression of Storm packs of yesteryears? The fact is that we really don’t know as the Storm have not had any problems like this for years now so you will have to rely on gut feel.
Now to the draw…. Depending on how you are projecting this year’s ladder, the Storm before their first bye round face:
-Three teams contending for top 4 spots
-Three teams contending for the spoon
-Two teams contending for the lower half of the 8
Harry Grant against top four team-55.3 in 69.13 mins
Harry Grant against bottom four teams-57 in71.4 mins
Harry Grant against mid table teams 58.6 in 67.46 mins
This leaves us with a projected average of 56.7 through the first 8 rounds which falls somewhat in line with the 2 points we have taken away for a drop on TA percentage from his BE of 59.1. It must be said however that of the teams I have projected for the bottom four he averages closer to 91 (lol) which would actually pump his average up to 70 in the first 8 rounds, but I think that would be more reliant on hope then being realistic. I would however still be willing to settle for a 60 avg.
So with all this being said, it’s likely that for once the game has actually priced someone fairly. I’m not going to tell you not to get on as I myself have actually had him in and out of my team. But the further I got into making this article, the further I have backed off. He isnt a terrible option, but there are others with a heap of value and 250k cheaper…in my opinion one to target post bye/origin.
Final Verdict: CAUTION