Watson injury beneficiary?
Origin hero Linsday Collins showed us a false flag in 2021, averaging 52.6 in five games before injuring his ACL in R8. His other 23 appearances across the 2020-22 span show a consistent average in the low 40s (42.5 points in 48.75 minutes) – which is where we are projecting Collins in 2023.
His game style represents a fairly consistent base in the high 30s (split between tackles and running metres), but his attacking stats leave a lot to be desired apart from his “purple” patch in 2021 – where he averaged 2.2 tackle busts, 0.4 try assists, and 0.4 line breaks per game – (which were all career highs). If we look at 2022 for example, he failed to register a try, try assist, line break, or line break assist all season.
In terms of relevant player movements for the Roosters, Taukieaho has decided to chase the dollarydoos playing for the Catalans Dragons in the farmer’s league. Brandon “Hectic Cheese” Smith has signed a big money deal with the Roosters to play dummy half, but he may even pinch some of the middle minutes like he did so often at the Melbourne Storm.
At the time of writing, the ever-mercurial Matthew Lodge has yet to sign a deal for 2023. We expect him to re-sign with the Roosters after the ongoing collective bargaining / salary cap situation is sorted out, and take a spot on the bench (playing around 40 middle minutes).
Connor Watson’s patella tendon injury also opens the door for some additional minutes – although this is likely to be soaked up between the other middle forwards and Cheese.
The reality is, Collins has never been a big minutes guy – only playing over 60 minutes three times in his career. We project that he is likely to play between 45-50 minutes in the middle, where his PPM is approximately 0.88, resulting in approximately 40-44 points per game.
While there is a small amount of value there, it’s not enough to get excited about and we are happy for you to let this particular origin hero go through to the keeper.
FANTASY AMATEUR (IRREGULAR) ROB