The Biggest Trap of 2023?
Tom Trbojevic comes into the 2023 season at 638k after another injury riddled season in what seems to be a return to the tommy turbo we have all come to know instead of the tackle breaking freak from the 2021’s PVL ball, awkwardly priced in the low 600s at a 43.5avg after being adjusted up from his actual avg of 37.6 in 2022 we need to have a look at what makes this guy the biggest dud to start with in 2023.
Let’s look at turbos last 5 seasons, in brackets is season avg with all games having played the full 80 (injury/rest games removed). The reason why injury games are included in turbos normal avgs is because this guy cant finish a season without one, so we should allow for some in our projection.
| Year | Season avg | Games played | Avg TSR | Avg TA |
| 2018 | 45.5 (45.5) | 22 | 41% | 64% |
| 2019 | 44.6 (50.2) | 12 | 42% | 67% |
| 2020 | 37.6 (42.6) | 7 | 57% | 100% |
| 2021 | 78.5 (79) | 15 | 167% | 180% |
| 2022 | 37.6 (38.3) | 7 | 28.5% | 42.8% |
Now apart from one outlier season when the game was engineered for more points to be scored in general play, its pretty bleak reading for anyone thinking Turbo has any significant early value after his price adjustment.
Turbo deals in attacking stats, and given he doesn’t accumulate base stats like other elite fullbacks or kick goals as a safety net. Plus, having the rd 2 bye, coupled with having to play the bunnies, eels, panthers, storm, all within the first 7 weeks only makes the argument stronger to pass on Turbo and re-evaluate after this period, if he can make it through this period injury free and with a relative avg to 30-35 it should be good signs of coming things but that is the absolute best case scenario. It is more likely turbo will either have an injury occur or he will be suffocated of attacking stats by the better teams and avg <30 after 8 weeks of play.
For the years above turbo averages;
- 40.8 against top 4 teams (38.6) without PVL ball
- 52.4 against teams in the middle (45.4) without PVL ball
- 67.2 against teams in the bottom 4 (56.4) without PVL ball
If we take turbos historic data and project the first 7 weeks of the comp, we get an avg of 48.5 (43.1) which is generous having given the eels, bunnies, bulldogs, knights all middle 8 scoring. When you take into account that Manly are a rung below most teams this year, I can’t see this being anywhere near what transpires, and EVEN if it does that’s only 5pts. Shaky value at best, given how volatile the WFB position is and how many cheap options there are this year starting with someone like Turbo is an unnecessary risk that could really hinder the start of your season.
Now the reason why PVL ball is being highlighted a lot in this article is because this year should be considered the exception that proves the rule rather than the rule. Don’t expect to see these level of numbers ever again in an NRL fantasy season.
TLDR; Tom Trapbjevic is an injury prone, attack heavy scorer with a poorly placed bye, bad draw and worse team. AVOID.
(INTERN AUSTIN)
Amateurs Fantasy Sports 