PROJECTED STARTING 17, ROUND 1 2021
FULLBACK: TOM TRBOJEVIC $1M 80BE (2021 AVG 83.8, 25 TRIES IN 15 GAMES)
Fantasy Outlook (R): I’m not sure what you can say about Turbo’s 2021 season that hasn’t already been said. He had one of the all time fantasy seasons and punished every non-believer espousing heresy about his hamstrings. I’ve seen a lot of people saying they’ll be trying to start with both Cleary and Turbo this year and after last years debacle of not starting with Cleary I’m going to refrain from making the same bold declaration I won’t be starting with Turbo just yet. However, with the amount of value seemingly around in the WFB department, at this stage I’m planning on forgoing Turbo as long as Cleary is fit for Round 1. NEW SCORING IMPACT: In the least amount of words, Tommy should take about a 6.5 point hit from the new scoring, plus any negative impacts of the rule modifications and some severe try regression and tough schedule.
LEFT WING: REUBEN GARRICK $668K 54BE (2021 AVG 53.3, 21 TRIES IN 24 GAMES)
LEFT CENTRE: BRAD PARKER $354K 28BE (2021 AVG 28, CAREER CENTRE AVG 26.6)
RIGHT CENTRE: MORGAN HARPER $500K 40BE (2021 AVG 40.4, NO OBVIOUS CHANGES)
RIGHT WING: JASON SAAB $369K 30BE (2021 AVG 28.8, AVERAGE ONE TRY PER GAME)
LEFT HALF: KIERAN FORAN $419K 34BE (2021 AVG 34.7, NO OBVIOUS CHANGES)
RIGHT HALF: DALY CHERRY-EVANS $822K 66BE (21 AVG 71, 36% GAMES 80+ POINTS)
Fantasy Outlook (M): It was hard to imagine DCE having a better year in 2021 than he did in 2020 from a Fantasy perspective considering he lost the goal kicking, but the piles of attacking stats really made up for any lost goal kicking points. He played the full game in all of his appearances in 2021, meaning he likely doesn’t have a lot of “value”, but then again he did put up a last 3 average of over 95 points while only scoring one try. I am done fading DCE for Fantasy, if you want your boy I won’t talk you out of bringing him into your team and saving about $220k compared to Cleary who may not be available for round 1. NEW SCORING IMPACT: Between the tackle busts and kick metres, DCE loses about 8 points per game, and may be the most impacted player other than Nathan Cleary. He projects to average about 2-3 points less than his BE (like many other guns), so if you want to take him as your week 1 captain if Cleary misses then we won’t talk you out of it.
LEFT BACK ROW: JOSH SCHUSTER* (2021 AVG 48.8, 47.5 WHEN PLAYING IN BACK ROW)
RIGHT BACK ROW: HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU* (2021 AVG 46.9, 54.5 AT 70+ MIN EDGE)
Fantasy Outlook (M): This dude looks legit, both for real football and also for Fantasy. From week 17 onwards, Hasler gave the full 80 minute back role to Hamoule, who did not disappoint. Nonetheless, I expect his value to fly under the rader for the larger fantasy community and for this selection to be one for the “sharps”. His try scoring rate is extraordinarily high for a back rower, but when you play outside Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans I don’t think you could call it unsustainable. Hamoule is a prototypical ideal fantasy edge back rower, scoring tries and busting tackles for fun, with the only real knock on him being his base stats are on the low side. NEW SCORING IMPACT: Unfortunately, Fanhub were all over me here, and Haumole cops a 3.5 point per game nerf on top of his BE being set 3 points above his 2021 season average. Jerks.
LOCK: JAKE TRBOJEVIC $651K 51BE (2021 AVG 48.9, CAREER LOCK AVG 55 IN 77.6 MINS)
Fantasy Outlook (M): A Fantasy gun of years past, “Jurbo” struggled this year from a fantasy perspective (in comparison to his usual lofty standards) through a combination of Manlys success (reduced defensive workload) and the new rules creating more points, meaning less opportunity for Jake to accumulate base stats – you can’t tackle if you are standing behind the posts! Depending on how the NRL approach the rules this year, Jurbo could represent a value, but more than likely he is going to be below keeper standard again in 2022. NEW SCORING IMPACT: Trbojevic has almost no tackle busts or offloads to speak of, so the new scoring does nothing, but he does have a path to potential fantasy relevance again early season due to the tough schedule and 6 tackles per game less in 2021 than his past career, or at least thats what I would have written if Jake hadn’t had his price adjusted for the above facts already. Jerks.
PROP: MARTIN TAUPAU $614K 49BE (21 AVG 47.9, 21 PROP AVG 47.9 IN 49.9 MIN)
Fantasy Impact (R): It’s never been an issue for ppm for big Marty. The offloading fend machine hasn’t slowed down but unfortunately he just hasn’t received the minutes under Des that made him an elite gun under Baz. I think I’ll continue to admire my favourite dread locked prop from a far again in 2022 as even injury/suspension to other big minute props has never changed his role in recent years.
PROP: TANIELA PASEKA $422K 34BE (21 AVG 32.7, PROP AVG 30+ MINS 37.4 IN 43.4 MINS)
HOOKER: LACHLAN CROKER $561K 45BE (2021 AVG 43 IN 70MINS, 70+ MIN AVG 45.4)
BENCH 1: JOSH ALOIAI $497K 40BE
BENCH 2: SEAN KEPPIE
BENCH 3: KARL LAWTON
BENCH 4/UTILITY: DYLAN WALKER
*Both Josh Schuster & Haumole Olakau’atu will be absent for the opening rounds due to injury
PROJECTED FORWARD PACK MINUTES
FRINGE PLAYERS OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 17