PROJECTED STARTING 17 ROUND 1, 2021
FULLBACK: JAYDEN CAMPBELL $550K 44BE (2021 AVG 43.7, 5 TRIES IN 6 GAMES)
Fantasy Impact (R): It feels right to have a Campbell in the Titans #1 jersey, and this kid could be as talented as his dad. He had a fairly tough run to start his career going against the Storm x2, Roosters & Manly and still managed an average of 38.25 with 3 tries in those 4 games. I don’t think a high try scoring rate is a guarantee for regression in the era of V’landys ball but the fantasy concern here is that his strong performances in 2021 have likely priced him out of being a buy to start the year unless he’s given a solid discount. NEW SCORING IMPACT: 4.3 tackle busts per game and no discount = way overpriced.
LEFT WING: COREY THOMPSON $500K 40BE (2021 AVG 41.8, 43.7 IN 70+ MIN GAMES)
LEFT CENTRE: BRIAN KELLY $476K 38BE (21 AVG 37.5, 43.2 IN FINAL 10 GMS – 8 TRIES)
Fantasy Impact (M): This may be the year for the Titans, and with a soft early schedule it is the perfect time for Brian Kelly to bring some additional consistency. Kelly is an attacking weapon for the Titans, and averaged in the mid 40s for his final 10 games for 2021. As he is already going to be relatively expensive, he will more than likely be a POD to start the year, but an edge of Brimson, Kelly and Thompson will see a lot of ball and could do very well in 2022. NEW SCORING IMPACT: the good news is that Kelly only averages about 2.5 tackle busts per game, which is completely offset by his offload numbers. Better options at the price point though.
RIGHT CENTRE: PATRICK HERBERT $391K 31BE (2021 AVG 32.9, 33.9 IN 70+ MIN GAMES)
RIGHT WING: GREG MARZHEW $489K 39BE (2021 AVG 39.4, 6 TRIES IN 8 GAMES)
LEFT HALF: AJ BRIMSON $500K 40BE (21 AVG 39.2, AVG IN HALVES 37.1 – 75 KICK MTRS)
RIGHT HALF: TOBY SEXTON $600K 48BE (2021 AVG 59.5 IN 4 GAMES, 230 KICK MTRS)
Fantasy Impact (M): Sexton burst onto the scene last year and averaged almost 60 across his 4 starts despite only scoring one try. Gold Coast have faith in him having let Fogarty go, and Fantasy managers should too given he should get a steep discount for limited games played. He has even more upside partnered with Brimson as he should do the bulk of the kicking. Looks a great option particularly given the soft schedule. NEW SCORING IMPACT: due to his relatively low kick metre numbers, Sexton may actually end up averaging more points in kick metres this year than last year during his 4 game stint. Attacking wise, there is nothing statistically to point that Sexton has any regression coming there, and he looks to have at least 5 points value if not more and a keeper level projection (at least until after origin).
LEFT BACK ROW: BEAU FERMOR $451K 36BE (21 AVG 34.8, CAREER BR AVG 42.1 IN 76)
RIGHT B.ROW: DAVID FIFITA $800K 64BE (21 AVG 66.6 IN 66.2 MINS, 70.7 IN 70+ MINS)
Fantasy Impact (R): The flack track bully himself. When he’s on, he’s a candidate for the best fantasy player in the game but his tendency to go missing when his team needs him most saw him reduced to a bench impact role in the back half of 2021. If he locks down a big minute starting role he seems an obvious buy candidate as he was last season but it all depends how much faith you have in Holbrook to give him consistent 60+mins. Hopefully more info shakes out of what to expect during pre-season. NEW SCORING IMPACT: As you may expect, the NRL leader in tackle busts has been negatively impacted by the rule changes, but Fifita also benefits from the upgrade to offloads to the tune of a net -4 points per game roughly overall. The question is this: which Fifita are we getting in 2022?
PROP: ISAAC LIU $565K 45BE (2021 AVG 43.5 IN 57.4 MIN, 2021 LOCK/PROP AVG 42.5)
PROP: MOEAKI FOTUAIKA $613K 49BE (21 AVG 48.4, 52.5 IN 51.9 MIN STARTING)
Fantasy Impact (M): Unfortunately for Fantasy Managers, the Gold Coast Titans seem unwilling to acknowledge Mo as an elite NRL prop, and keep shuffling his minutes and role to accommodate lesser players. With Peachey now gone, the equation becomes clearer and Fotuaika should likely secure a permanent starting role. The only question remaining is whether we trust Justin Holbrook not to mess with his best middle, particularly considering both of the other starting middles they have also play big minutes. NEW SCORING IMPACT: Any negative impacts to tackle busts are offset by offloading. I actually really like Fotuaika as a “gut feel” pick this year, but I will not recommend anyone pull the trigger.
LOCK: TINO FA’ASUAMALEAUI $587K 47BE (2021 AVG 45.7, NO OBVIOUS CHANGES)
HOOKER: ERIN CLARK $412K 33BE (2021 AVG 31.5, STARTING HOOKER 38.5)
Fantasy Impact (M): More than likely, this is going to be either Clark or Booth, both of which could be great options if they are flying solo with a true bench utility like Turner. If they decide to go towards the Booth/Clark combo, then neither will be a buy. One to keep an eye on for TLT. They seem to have adjusted his break even based on his lack of reliance on tackle busts or kicking, so we are really looking for a Booth/Boyd or Booth/Turner combo here.
BENCH 1: JARROD WALLACE
BENCH 2: JAIMEN JOLIFFE
BENCH 3: SAM LISONE
BENCH 4/UTILITY: TANAH BOYD
PROJECTED MINUTES AND ROTATION
|PLAYER NAME||PROJ. MINS|
FRINGE PLAYERS NOT PROJECTED TO MAKE TOP 17