It is no secret that players have a peak and then decline with age. In fact, even a non-sport fan could tell you that in most sports beyond thirty an athlete has probably seen better days very with few exceptions.
We at the Amateurs wanted to know whether it is possible for fantasy coaches to study and then quantify when an athlete is likely to peak, and then when it’s time to avoid on the decline?
Stating the obvious, the age of rise and decline for any player will be impacted by various factors including position, how many “miles are in the legs”, coaching, quality of the team around them, rule changes, etc.
Today, Ryan (along with help from the Amateurs team) is going to look at some of the best fantasy middle forwards over the last five to ten seasons to see if any easily identifiable patterns emerge and if there are any, how can we implement those into our buy and avoid decision making.
All our stats in this article are thanks to Rugby League Fantasy Pro https://app.rugbyleaguefantasypro.com/
The Old Heads
Ryan James
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2016 | 24 | 21 | 60.3 | 1.01 |
| 2017 | 25 | 22 | 47.8 | 0.76 |
| 2018 | 26 | 18 | 54.2 | 0.75 |
| 2019 | 27 | 5 | 42 | 0.69 |
Ryan James might not be the best example to begin with given his run of serious injuries beginning at 27 years old, never allowing him to return to the player he once was, but it is important to note that the older a player gets the more susceptible to injury they become (see our game theory), especially in the middle of the park where the hits are more frequent.
Jason Taumalolo
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2015 | 21 | 20 | 41.4 | 0.83 |
| 2016 | 22 | 24 | 47.4 | 0.93 |
| 2017 | 23 | 22 | 59.05 | 0.95 |
| 2018 | 24 | 23 | 52.3 | 0.82 |
| 2019 | 25 | 18 | 60.5 | 0.94 |
| 2020 | 26 | 15 | 61.8 | 0.98 |
| 2021 | 27 | 14 | 48.2 | 0.83 |
| 2022 | 28 | 23 | 44 | 0.81 |
| 2023 | 29 | 10 | 36.9 | 0.72 |
| 2024 | 30 | 12 | 24.8 | 0.69 |
Similarly to Ryan James, a clear peak begins at age 23 for Taumalolo who turned 24 halfway through the 2017 season. Taumalolo maintains this high production output for four seasons before a clear decline begins in 2021 and he begins playing less games as injuries become more common beginning in 2020. Jason is probably the best example of a career middle forward with plenty of miles in the legs showing a clear peak beginning at 23/24 and ending at age 27. Let’s look at a few more older heads.
Jesse Bromwich
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2014 | 24 | 24 | 51.2 | 0.92 |
| 2015 | 25 | 24 | 53.1 | 0.83 |
| 2016 | 26 | 20 | 52 | 0.88 |
| 2017 | 27 | 15 | 36.6 | 0.73 |
| 2018 | 28 | 24 | 36 | 0.76 |
| 2019 | 29 | 16 | 36.4 | 0.74 |
James Fisher-Harris
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2018 | 22 | 20 | 42 | 0.72 |
| 2019 | 23 | 19 | 55.8 | 0.74 |
| 2020 | 24 | 19 | 50.2 | 0.88 |
| 2021 | 25 | 20 | 53.5 | 1.02 |
| 2022 | 26 | 20 | 47.8 | 0.94 |
| 2023 | 27 | 20 | 42.5 | 0.89 |
| 2024 | 28 | 18 | 46.2 | 0.97 |
Jake Trbojevic
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2015 | 21 | 17 | 42.8 | 0.86 |
| 2016 | 22 | 23 | 48.8 | 0.75 |
| 2017 | 23 | 23 | 50.2 | 0.74 |
| 2018 | 24 | 23 | 55.2 | 0.74 |
| 2019 | 25 | 23 | 55.3 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | 26 | 20 | 54.1 | 0.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | 20 | 47.9 | 0.62 |
| 2022 | 28 | 20 | 47.5 | 0.58 |
| 2023 | 29 | 18 | 48.8 | 0.59 |
| 2024 | 30 | 21 | 47.6 | 0.58 |
David Klemmer
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2016 | 22 | 14 | 46 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 23 | 20 | 43.1 | 0.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | 16 | 45.7 | 0.79 |
| 2019 | 25 | 20 | 55.2 | 0.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | 20 | 56.8 | 1 |
| 2021 | 27 | 15 | 45.9 | 0.87 |
| 2022 | 28 | 18 | 55.8 | 0.92 |
| 2023 | 29 | 23 | 44 | 0.87 |
| 2024 | 30 | 18 | 33.5 | 0.79 |
Moses Leota
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2017 | 21 | 8 | 14.6 | 0.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | 18 | 24.6 | 0.83 |
| 2019 | 23 | 24 | 28 | 0.91 |
| 2020 | 24 | 20 | 32.8 | 0.98 |
| 2021 | 25 | 22 | 39 | 1.02 |
| 2022 | 26 | 15 | 36.8 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | 23 | 34.3 | 0.85 |
| 2024 | 28 | 22 | 30.4 | 0.73 |
Immediately it’s clear to see a pattern emerging where good players beginning at around age 23/24 have a noticeable uptick in statistical output that lasts for about four seasons before a decline begins at 27/28 years old. Sometimes this increase is due to minutes, other times to PPM, but most of the time it is both. So early doors it looks like the focus is opportunity + age.
The pattern of a performance spike at 23/24 is also clear to see in some of the best middles currently in their prime in the NRL right now as well.
Stars In Their Prime
Cameron Murray
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2018 | 20 | 9 | 51.3 | 0.89 |
| 2019 | 21 | 23 | 56.9 | 0.96 |
| 2020 | 22 | 15 | 55.9 | 0.86 |
| 2021 | 23 | 16 | 59 | 0.94 |
| 2022 | 24 | 19 | 62.1 | 0.94 |
| 2023 | 25 | 20 | 58.8 | 0.95 |
| 2024 | 26 | 8 | 62.1 | 0.94 |
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2020 | 20 | 5 | 48.4 | 0.88 |
| 2021 | 21 | 19 | 44.4 | 0.74 |
| 2022 | 22 | 20 | 51.8 | 0.84 |
| 2023 | 23 | 17 | 57.9 | 0.92 |
Patrick Carrigan
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM |
| 2019 | 21 | 2 | 43 | 0.96 |
| 2020 | 22 | 19 | 59 | 0.87 |
| 2021 | 23 | 8 | 44.4 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | 14 | 50.1 | 0.83 |
| 2023 | 25 | 15 | 56.2 | 0.89 |
| 2024 | 26 | 18 | 59.8 | 0.83 |
Thomas Flegler
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2019 | 19 | 22 | 25.4 | 0.81 |
| 2020 | 20 | 13 | 39 | 0.88 |
| 2021 | 21 | 20 | 35.2 | 0.83 |
| 2022 | 22 | 18 | 38.8 | 0.88 |
| 2023 | 23 | 19 | 37.3 | 0.85 |
| 2024 | 24 | 4 | 48.3 | 1.01 |
J’maine Hopgood
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2021 | 21 | 5 | 29.6 | 0.87 |
| 2022 | 22 | 4 | 31.8 | 0.86 |
| 2023 | 23 | 23 | 60.5 | 0.93 |
| 2024 | 24 | 12 | 55.7 | 0.94 |
Lindsay Smith
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2021 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 0.83 |
| 2022 | 22 | 3 | 22.7 | 0.82 |
| 2023 | 23 | 20 | 37.1 | 0.91 |
| 2024 | 24 | 19 | 42.7 | 0.88 |
Leo Thompson
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2022 | 22 | 16 | 26 | 0.85 |
| 2023 | 23 | 23 | 40.5 | 0.86 |
| 2024 | 24 | 21 | 41.4 | 0.84 |
Again there’s a pattern of an uptick in performance around 23/24 years of age. With most or all of these players there is also an opportunity for a role here, and – in the case of a player like Lindsay Smith – we need to remember that role players like Matt Eisenhuth aren’t likely to stop the breakout.
Some may begin their peak period a little earlier than others often due simply to opportunity while others might experience a dip due to serious injury before returning to peak output like Carrigan. It might be important to note that both Murray and Carrigan are coming up on their age 27 season where we noted the beginning of a decline for some of the best middle forwards in recent years.
However, before we write off two of the best guns in the game there are some notable exceptions to this pattern we should discuss before drawing any final conclusions.
The Exceptions
Of course to every statistical pattern there’s some outliers who defy this trend. The common and least relevant to this experiment are the players like Isaah Yeo, Cameron McInnes, Tohu Harris etc. Players who spent most of their careers in other positions before transitioning to the middle in recent years and flourishing in their later seasons without the wear and tear a career middle forward sustains earlier on. Joseph Tapine is another interesting case where he’s putting in some of the best years of his career in his late 20s after being primarily a bench forward or backrower for most of his career up until the back end of 2020. Although it should be noted Tapine did also have an 11-point jump when he turned 24, transitioning from a bench forward to an 80-minute edge. So, he probably isn’t an exception to the rule but does point to middle forwards being able to flourish in their later years if they’re not playing as big minute middles in their early 20s.
As for the career middles, Payne Haas is the screaming exception for a player that defies all trends and has performed at a statistically high level since he was nineteen years old. Some players are simply one of one, incapable of replication and don’t come along very often.
There is one other very good career middle that needs to be discussed as a statistical outlier. Addin Fonua-Blake exhibits the same boom in performance pattern as everyone else when he hits 23 years old, however as he hits 29 heading into 2025, he’s yet to show a drop off in statistical performance. While he showed signs of following this pattern and dropping off at 26, he somehow bucked the trend and had his best statistical seasons at 27 and 28 years of age. Now it’s more than likely his inflated try scoring numbers over the past two years compared to the rest of his career are keeping his numbers so high in the years we’d expect a decline. If he’s able to sustain this level of try scoring then it’s possible he remains a gun but moving to a new side with a stack of very good middle forwards capable of big minutes with the sword of try scoring regression hanging above him, there’s a very plausible scenario where Fonua-Blake averages less than 50 this year and returns to pattern expectation.
Addin Fonua-Blake
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle starts | Average | PPM | Tries |
| 2018 | 22 | 24 | 38.6 | 0.8 | 3 |
| 2019 | 23 | 20 | 50.8 | 0.94 | 4 |
| 2020 | 24 | 14 | 48.07 | 0.96 | 3 |
| 2021 | 25 | 14 | 51.9 | 0.93 | 1 |
| 2022 | 26 | 19 | 43.4 | 0.78 | 1 |
| 2023 | 27 | 23 | 57.6 | 0.96 | 8 |
| 2024 | 28 | 23 | 57.8 | 0.96 | 8 |
So, before we go writing off any gun middles as they reach their late 20s, it’s important to keep in mind that statistical outliers do exist. However, father time is undefeated and as AFB enters his age 29 season, two of the players mentioned in the first part of this article, Jason Taumalolo and David Klemmer, both experienced their sharpest decline at 29 years old.
The Ones To Watch
Middle forwards are unique in that compared to an outside back who, outside of a few occasional games of injury cover, will typically only get their prolonged first grade opportunity when they’re at an age they’re ready for it due to the scarcity of positions available, plying their craft in lower grades and developing out of sight.
In contrast, with upwards of seven middle forward positions to cover per team, we often see young forwards get prolonged opportunities at limited minutes in their early years, perhaps offering some value early as a cash cow before falling out of the fantasy consciousness as they average in the 20/30s for a year or two before they’re ready to hit their prime. It may be a couple of years before they’re given greater opportunities after a few years of growth and development and it’s these players that can often be missed by fantasy coaches.
With the established criteria of looking for a forward hitting 23/24 years old, with limited opportunity thus far but potential opportunity in 2025, we can have a look at the potential candidates for a breakout season, and rate them by need to keep our eyes on and hopefully take advantage of before the average fantasy player is even aware of what’s happening.
Xavier Willison – 4/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2023 | 20 | 7 | 19.1 | 1.02 |
| 2024 | 21 | 19 | 36.3 | 0.94 |
Willison is a tricky one because he quite clearly has the talent, but the role is what will hold him back. Willison just happens to be in the same side as two of the best forwards in the NRL with Haas and Carrigan soaking the bulk of the minutes in this pack. Now with Madge’s love for Kobe Hetherington it becomes increasingly unlikely he’ll get minutes required this year, but one to watch if injury strikes one of the starters.
Tallis Duncan – 6/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2023 | 21 | 7 | 30 | 1.02 |
| 2024 | 22 | 14 | 29.3 | 0.85 |
Davvy Moale – 6/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2022 | 19 | 12 | 16.7 | 0.79 |
| 2023 | 20 | 17 | 21.1 | 0.78 |
| 2024 | 21 | 22 | 32.9 | 0.89 |
With Thomas Burgess heading back to England and Cameron Murray and Euan Aitken on the sidelines as well Arrow and Tatola still working their way back from injury and nearing 30, there’s a big opportunity for Duncan and Moale to grab starting roles somewhere in this pack. Both look like prime candidates for a breakout year and will depend on how Souths line up round 1.
Naufahu Whyte – 8/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2023 | 21 | 7 | 26.6 | 0.82 |
| 2024 | 22 | 18 | 30 | 0.93 |
Spencer Leniu – 4/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2020 | 19 | 12 | 21.4 | 1.04 |
| 2021 | 20 | 17 | 23.8 | 1.00 |
| 2022 | 21 | 22 | 23.8 | 1.02 |
| 2023 | 22 | 18 | 28.7 | 0.87 |
| 2024 | 23 | 13 | 34.1 | 0.84 |
With the departures of JWH, Terrell May, Sitili Tupouniua and injury to Brandon Smith pushing Watson to hooker, Naufahu Whyte is probably the best candidate for a breakout season and pending round 1 team lists will likely be in my starting side. If he’s able to beat out Nat Butcher for the starting lock position, a 50-minute role for a 42-45 point average looks attainable. Leniu on the other hand looks certain for a starting prop role after these departures. His PPM was the lowest of his career last year but with less cooks in the Roosters creative kitchen, it may be up the engine room to step up which would see more metres for Spencer and a return to form in his age 24 season.
Liam Henry – 7/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2023 | 21 | 2 | 27 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | 17 | 36.3 | 1.11 |
Liam Henry’s PPM is nothing short of outstanding and up there with the elite middles of the NRL. With the Panthers saying goodbye to James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota due to turn 30 next season, there is a possibility for Henry to become a keeper. With Isaah Yeo still likely to soak the bulk of the middle minutes and the breakout of Lindsay Smith last year, it may leave Henry needing an injury, but even a 45 minute role would get Henry close to a 50 average.
Griffin Neame – 4/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2022 | 21 | 21 | 24.4 | 0.85 |
| 2023 | 22 | 16 | 31.1 | 0.73 |
| 2024 | 23 | 23 | 33.4 | 0.85 |
Neame is hitting an age you’d expect him to really kick on but with Cotter the main middle along with the signing of John Bateman, we are not sure Neame’s PPM or role will ever be quite enough to be fantasy relevant even if he does see an uptick this year. The injury to Luki, along with the early season Taumalolo injury, Hess returning from an ACL, and age of Mclean (34) does leave the door open if Payten can trust Neame with a consistent 45-50 minute role.
On average, the 2nd highest minute middle forward in Paytens rotation averaged 46.25 minutes, and Neame played 45+ mins on 7 occasions in 2024, and had a 4 game stretch in rounds 22-26 where he averaged 50 minutes per game, so its definitely possible, but would require a shift in Paytens pattern of varying minutes for players each week.
Sam Hughes – 5/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2023 | 22 | 5 | 14.2 | 1.00 |
| 2024 | 23 | 23 | 29.3 | 0.88 |
The definition of slow burn cash cow, Sam Hughes showed signs of good things at times last year as the Bulldogs nursed him into first grade, managing his minutes at irregular intervals. He eventually took over the starting prop role in round 9 and held it for the rest of the season. Hughes would probably need an injury to King to really hit his fantasy stride, but the makings of a 40+ average prop are here as he comes into his second full season of first grade.
Tom Gilbert – 8/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2020 | 19 | 7 | 22.7 | 0.81 |
| 2021 | 20 | 11 | 34.2 | 0.79 |
| 2022 | 21 | 5 | 41.6 | 0.87 |
| 2023 | 22 | 11 | 47.5 | 0.81 |
Gilbert’s relevancy will hinge on how Fanhub chooses to price him after missing the entirety of 2024. With the forward pack amongst the oldest in the league and Flegler still on the shelf, Gilbert does have the makings of a 50+ average lock. How he bounces back from the ACL rupture is the big question mark, with players typically having their best performances the second year after injury.
Ata Mariota – 4/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2023 | 21 | 6 | 20.3 | 0.64 |
| 2024 | 22 | 12 | 27.2 | 0.83 |
With Josh Papali’i getting up in age, there’s room for Mariota’s role to grow in 2025 but with Horsburgh back in the fold and Tapine still the main man, Mariota will likely need some injuries.
Fonua Pole – 6/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2022 | 19 | 10 | 35.3 | 0.82 |
| 2023 | 20 | 23 | 34.3 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | 22 | 34.4 | 0.74 |
Pole will be one to keep an eye on during the pre-season. The Tigers have lost Utoikamanu, Bateman and Papali’i while adding May, Hunt and Bird. With Bird, Hunt and Klemmer all either over 30 or turning 30 next year (plus Twal turning 29), in addition to Matamua and Seyfarth off contract at the end of the season, there is a very plausible scenario that this is the year for Pole to break out. Pole’s biggest weakness so far has been a sub-par PPM, averaging 45.4 in 60mins from his seven lock starts (30+ mins) in 2024.
However, turning 23 midway through next season plus the public consensus indicating an overall improvement for the Tigers in 2025, it would be quite plausible to see his PPM improve next season. If he’s able to win the starting lock role he could be a real smokey next season.
Stefano Utoikamanu – 5/10
| Year | Age (season start) | Middle & Bench appearances | Average | PPM |
| 2021 | 20 | 21 | 42.6 | 0.95 |
| 2022 | 21 | 9 | 27.7 | 0.82 |
| 2023 | 22 | 21 | 42.7 | 0.93 |
| 2024 | 23 | 23 | 45.9 | 0.91 |
The biggest plus for Utoikamanu is simply moving from a three-time wooden spoon side to the premiership favourites. Moving to a better team may result in less minutes amongst an already talented pack. I don’t think there’s any doubt Stefano has the potential to be a keeper and if Bellamy is able to get the best out of him, then he may be one to watch early in the season if the role is there.
Honorable Mentions to watch – Max Plath (already broken out), Jesse Colquhoun/Tuku Hau Tapuha (loaded pack), Alec MacDonald (loaded pack), Trey Mooney (loaded pack), Siua Wong, Justin Matamua, Mason Teague.
IN SUMMARY
If we look at the top money earners in the middles for 2024, it was a lot of young players that were not on our radar for the most part – Liam Henry, Xavier Willison, Davvy Moale, Toby Couchman, Lindsay Smith. In hindsight, all of these players had clear opportunity, but we failed to identify the increase in PPM and trust (minutes) that comes with age at about 23 years old for a middle forward in most cases. We shouldn’t use this as a “hard line”, but more a guideline to monitor players closer. We will be keeping a much closer eye on our young middle forwards to watch in the 2025 preseason, and will be looking to take our “educated risks” on players who fit this mould, instead of older players who may be on the decline.
In saying that, we also are going to be very judicious with middle forwards (and all players in general) who are 27+ years old, with increasingly heavier scrutiny as a player ages. Where a young, ascending player may get the benefit of the doubt, we should always assume the worst for the older guys.
This may not work every time, but it is absolutely the recipe for success.
Love you guys.
Amateurs Fantasy Sports 