Reserve grade to relevant?

Jayden Sullivan finds himself plucked from obscurity into some sort of relevance due to his competition for the dragons half spot getting hammer happy with a blue collar worker and subsequently being charged with a serious offence that will no doubt be covered by the no fault stand down policy and if normal court process is anything to go by I doubt we will see Ammone around anytime soon.

Sullivan is the frontrunner to replace Ammone however if he doesn’t perform Griffin could easily play musical chairs with other potential fillers in Mbye or Jack Bird. Priced at 340K (23pt avg) and as an 80 minute 5/8 he should be able to avg at least 30pts right? Let’s see.

Sullivan only has 4 80min starts at half over 3 years in the NRL but a lot of these have come through rests or injury’s to the other key half which means we may get a skewed avg here ergo unreliable. Sully’s avg across these games is 32pts but when we dig deeper into these games there are two games that Sullivan played with either a decent split of Km’s or as the second fiddle to the dominant playmaker so we get these results.

  • Avg with equal share km’s (250-270) 43.5pts
  • Avg as second fiddle to dominant playmaker (50-70) km’s 21.5pts

It’s not great reading with the certainty that ben hunt will be the dominant playmaker in this team and with the dragons destined for the bottom 4 (most picking them for the spoon this year) Sullivan likely wont see enough attacking upside to help him push into a respectable avg, even his 43.5 avg drops to 35ppg when you take out his attacking stats from those game.

But this is a small sample and there’s not a lot of reserve grade data on Sullivan either but I think this paints a clear enough picture to show a likely outcome, definitely not for the faint of heart, Probably averages 30-33 by end of year but like ammone last year it could be hard to get the price rises rolling without some try’s and try involvements.




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