Just need one healthy season.
Reynolds 2022 went as the Broncos did, starting on fire before eventually tailing off and finishing the season with a whimper. Can he go one further in 2023 with a very similar roster?
Essentially, we can break the Reynolds season into “pre origin” and “during/post origin”. Here is what that looks like…
|PRE ORIGIN||POST ORIGIN|
|SCORE DIST.||47, 49, 50, 51, 51T, 56, 70T, 73, 75T||24, 28, 36, 38, 48, 50, 51, 53T, 54, 83T|
|AVERAGE||58 (33% TRY RATE)||46.5 (20% TRY RATE)|
All up, he averaged around 51.9 points per game, but with two very different scoring patterns. They may as well had been different players, with pre origin Adam being a high floor, consistent 50+ scorer with a fairly low ceiling in the 70s. On the other hand, you could be forgiven for thinkin that the post origin Adam was a fullback with reduced base stats, given the low floor which resulted in 40% of his scores being under 40.
Looking to 2023, we have the Broncos battling for a top 8 spot, the Broncos have no early bye and Reynolds is past the time he would be looking at an Origin opportunity. After a few tough early matchups against the Panthers and Cowboys, the Broncos go into a fairly friendly schedule, avoiding all of the top 6 sides for round 3-7. Unfortunately the Origin schedule is brutal, with the Broncos taking on a gauntlet from round 8 to 12.
Realisically, it is entirely possible we see Reynolds repeat his pre origin performance in 2022 again this year with his hands on the ball constantly, directing the Broncos ship for better or worse. At $707k that would make him a really interesting option, particularly considering our game theory principles, of which an average of 53+ even would push him into fitting every criteria.
The scary parts for potential fantasy managers:
– Reynolds is a constant injury risk, sorry but he is.
– The Broncos haven’t really improved that much roster wise from the back half of 2022.
– Even if he is performing at his peak, you can get similar floors with higher ceilings elsewhere with guys like Jackson Hastings.
Ultimately, for this reason we have labeled him as a trap, but really the heading should be “Fine, but we think you can do better.”