PROJECTED ROUND 1 STARTING 17
FULLBACK: TESI NIU* $468K 38BE (2021 AVG 38, 2021 FULLBACK AVERAGE 41.3)
Fantasy Outlook (R): It was an up and down 2020 into early 2021 for Niu but he really found his footing when given another chance in the back half of 2021. How you view his upside is really tied to your outlook on the Broncos attack and how the game will be refereed in the early rounds. I think his strong showings at fullback have likely priced him out of being a buy in 2022, particularly given the neutral early schedule, unless he was to retain centre dual position. NEW SCORING UPDATE: Unfortunately for Tesi, he cops an (approximately) 4 point reduction, despite having a BE of 38, making him a shade overpriced and therefore an AVOID.
LEFT WING: JORDAN PEREIRA $327K 26BE (CAREER WING AVG 31.1)
LEFT CENTRE: HERBIE FARNWORTH $559K 45BE (2021 AVG 41.4, 2021 CTR AVG 41.2)
RIGHT CENTRE: KOTONI STAGGS $600K 48BE (2021 AVG 48.3 (4 GM), CTR AVG 41.6)
RIGHT WING: SELWYN COBBO $450K 36BE (2021 AVG 33.4, 2021 WING AVERAGE 27)
LEFT HALF: BILLY WALTERS $240K 19BE (46 AVG IN HALVES IN QCUP)
Fantasy Outlook (M): Choo Choo
RIGHT HALF: ADAM REYNOLDS $613K 49BE (2021 AVG 51.8, CAREER HALFBACK AVG 52.2)
RIGHT BACK ROW: JORDAN RIKI $571K 46BE (2021 AVG 44.4, CAREER BR AVG 47.1)
Fantasy Outlook (R): Riki had a break out rookie year in 2021 it’s easy to make a case for improvement in 2022 with a years experience and another year to grow under his belt. There’s no doubt some value here as he comes in priced at 46 but when on the field for 50+mins averaged a very solid 47.5 showcasing at times he has the attacking ability required for fantasy output. He should see more consistent playing time following the departure of Pangai and retirement of Alex Glenn but he was prone to defensive lapses which hampered his playing time last season. Whether or not Riki is a buy to start 2022 really depends on your outlook for the Broncos, but with addition of Adam Reynolds and a fully fit Staggs it wouldn’t be hard to envision Riki taking a leap, making him an interesting POD option to start 2022.
LEFT BACK ROW: KURT CAPEWELL $511K 41BE (21 AVG 40.4, 70+ MIN AVG 20/21 51.8)
Fantasy Outlook (M): Kurt Capewell looks like an absolute smash play this year, with the only real question being whether his increased PPM was due to playing in one of the best teams in recent memory next to a future immortal halfback, or due to an actual improvement in his game. Luckily for Capewell (and Fantasy managers) he isn’t taking a huge step down, and looks to be likely partnered up with Reynolds, Staggs and Cobbo on what looks like a lethal Broncos right edge. I expect Capewell to be a consistent 80 minute edge player, and have a prolific number of try involvements between Staggs and Reynolds. In 2021, Capewell averaged 45.6 in 72.6 mins across 60+ min games, with only a 0.04ppm decrease against top teams, so he looks safe. NEW SCORING UPDATE: Capewell doesn’t rely particularly heavily on tackle busts, but he does see enough of a reduction (about 2.5 points) to push him from “smash play” into more of a “meh” type value play. With a BE of 41 there is definitely value, but no slam dunk.
LOCK: KOBE HETHERINGTON $376K 30BE (AVG 37.3 IN 48.1 MID DESPITE 40% TRY RATE)
LOCK: PAT CARRIGAN $588K 47BE (2021 AVG 44.5, CAR 40-60MIN AVG 42.6 IN 49.6 MIN)
PROP: PAYNE HAAS $782K 63BE (2021 AVG 61.6 IN 60.5, 50-70MIN AVG 64.7 IN 62.1)
Fantasy Outlook (R): The Payne Train was slow to leave the station in 2021 but it was full steam ahead in the back end of the year with Haas averaging 71.8 from Rd15-24. He’ll come into 2022 with a slight discount after injury affected scores of 34 in round 12 and a 16 in round 25. Whether we start with Haas will be cap dependent, but you could do worse than go with this safe captaincy option with Cleary out for the first month and Turbo having a tough schedule. NEW SCORING UPDATE: Haas takes a 4 point reduction in his projection based on the new scoring format, which actually makes him slightly overpriced at his BE of 63.
HOOKER: COREY PAIX $323K 26BE
UTILITY: JAKE TURPIN $596K 48BE (2021 AVG 45.7 IN 66 MIN, CAREER HOOKER AVG 44.9)
BENCH 1: TOM FLEGLER* $450K 36BE
BENCH 2: RYAN JAMES $423K 34BE (2021 AVG 32.9, MID AVG 30-55MIN 43.7 IN 46.1)
BENCH 3: TC ROBATI $392K 31BE
*FLEGLER WILL MISS THE FIRST 3 DUE TO SUSPENSION, EXPECT PALASIA TO COME IN
*Tesi Niu will miss the opening rounds due to injury
PROJECTED FORWARD PACK ROTATION
FRINGE PLAYERS NOT PROJECTED TO MAKE TOP 17