Amateurs Fantasy Sports

In the first 15 rounds of 2025 Adam Doueihi, was left loitering in the centres for Wests Tigers, but from round 16 onwards there appears to have been a noticeable role change with an apparent effort to get him more involved. 

This has gone a step further this round (20) with AD being named the starting lock forward, a position he has never started in before in his life according to available records.

Is this one week of madness for an out and out backline star or a second coming of Corey Parker?  (For those younger players, Parker was a 60+min lock forward who kicked goals for the Broncos and was an absolute fantasy weapon up until his retirement in 2016.)

Background

Since his debut 2018 AD has a lifetime average across 33 games playing in the halves of 54 points out of his 106 total games, he’s a jet when he’s able to stay on the park and is getting multiple touches on ball. 

The key issue for him has always been staying on the park and after 3 ACL reconstructions on the same knee he’s finally strung some games together this season and is currently on a 13-game play streak, his longest since late 2022.

At the beginning of 2023 he was chosen over the great Nathan Cleary to start in the halves of some fantasy teams, myself included.

When Adam Doueihi is on, he’s an elite fantasy prospect capable of dynamic scoring across the park including goal kicking. He’s a 26-year-old, 1.9m tall and about 100kgs weapon.

Present Day.

Focusing on this season alone, he’s spent the first 15 rounds effectively at left centre for an average of 35 fantasy points, arguably underutilised on the edge, averaging a paltry 0.15 Try’s, 2.4 goals, 0.3 Try assists, 0.2 Line breaks, 0.4 Line break assists, 11.7 Tackles, 0.85 Tackle Breaks, 1 Offload, 0.9 errors, 0.4 turnovers, 97 run meters, 34 kick metres.

Then he’s come back from the round 15 bye and gone 52, 58, 56 without any try’s followed by an 85 double try effort.

So, what’s changed?

Statistically – everything with noticeable increases across the board now averaging 0.5 trys, 2.75 goals, 0.75 Try assists, 1.25 Line breaks, 0.75 Line break assists, 13.75 Tackles, 5.5 Tackle Breaks, 0.5 Offload, 1 errors, 0.5 turnovers, 120 run meters, 191 kick metres.

(These stats were all taken as is, with no cherry picking.)

But why?

Round 16 played left centre, nothing of note to report, aside from 9 tackle breaks which was a season high, and 2 less than the combined amount of tackle breaks he had recorded all year. 

Had AD been given licence to run the ball more?

Round 17 started at left centre and moved into the halves on later in the game chaos with no Luai and Koroisau starting in the halves with Latu Fainu. This saw the beginning of 80-minute Fainu who had previously been coming off the bench and filling a ball playing middle forward roll, a roll Coach Benji has shown a preference to. AD also managed 6 Tackle breaks, again more TBs than any week except round 16.

Run AD run?

Round 18 named in the Halves alongside Fainu due to massive outs, drank all the milkshake and oversaw an upset downing the Roosters 30 to 28. No tackled breaks recorded. 

Shackled by his primary half duties?

Round 19 started at left centre and moved into a middle ball playing lock role later in the game which saw him score two try’s and record 7 tackle breaks. Has Benji decided he wants AD on the ball more?

There’s a pattern forming here.

Round 20 AD has been named at starting lock forward with the other May debuting in the centre.

This is a clear move to get him on the ball more, there’s not arguments about it, but will it last?

Looking even deeper into the math I noticed something else. From Rounds 1 to 15 AD was averaging 19 receipts of the ball per game and then from round 16 onwards he’s averaged 30 receipts of the ball per game. Almost as if the Tigers went away on their bye round and worked out they wanted AD more involved.

This only further strengthens my thinking of an intentional role change to get Adam Doueihi with his hands on the ball more in the middle of the field.

Sudden uptick in all attacking stats? Tick. Sudden uptick in receipts of the ball? Tick. Coach moved him into a dominant on the ball roll in the middle of the park? Tick

Do we know if he’ll keep this position? Absolutely no idea, I could not write a bigger question mark.

What I can say for certain is that Benji Marshall loves himself a ball player in the middle of the field and has given several players, sometimes against their will, a go on the position. 

Think the recruitment of Jack Bird to fill the role, the occasional Api cameo, the introduction to first grade of Latu Fainu this year and even the Jackson Hastings experiment at the end of 2022. Even if he hated it, Jackson was brilliant in this role at least for fantasy averaging 58.3 points.

Benji has shown he wants himself a big body in the middle, and arguably Adam Doueihi is bigger and more talented than previous attempts.

One positional switch comparison we can draw on from this year alone is a player like Kurt Donoghue – a player who spent the offseason training at fullback to cover for Hamiso and is now a dominant ball playing lock after forcing his couches hand. Has AD done the same? 

Conclusion

Adam Doueihi is an elite fantasy option when he gets his hands on the ball regardless of position on the field and appears to now be commanding his fair share behind only Api, Luai and Latu Fainu.

His move into the middle of the field full time will only add to the amount of ball he’ll be getting and should lead to a further uptick on all attacking stats that come with it – He is the perfect architype for this role and he goal kicks on top.

Available as a centre / half dual position player at $576k priced at a about a 42 average with a BE of about 4 there is ten points of value here if he maintains his current scoring with the upside to push on into an even higher average. (The centre availability is very tasty right now with Dylan Lucas going down long term, although positional availably aside, he’s got keeper upside in any position).

However, there is so so so much risk here with nothing stopping Benji from moving him out of the lock roll, that he’s never started in, just as quickly as he put him in it. AD is also not the most durable of players with at least one knee held together by hopes and prayers.

We just don’t know what’s going to happen, and whether or not you take a punt will depend entirely on your belief in AD keeping a ball dominant roll in this Tigers team.

It’s also the time of the season where coaches don’t have the trades to take risks like AD, and with the Tigers round 23 bye looming it would make sense to give him a miss seeing everyone already has at least the best May in their teams. If only it was round 1.

I recommend avoiding, there a cheaper players currently available with bolted on roles, Tanah Boyd and Dylan Edwards for example, that will provide a much safer return.

VERDICT – Extreme Risk with High Upside – Avoid

That being said; everyone feels good when AD is flying, he’s a special talent and a great player to watch. It feels right looking at him in my team and to quote Good Friend of the show Will Mc “Do I need to take this risk? No. Do I want to? Yes.”

Fantasy is meant to be fun after all.

Age Medium

DURABILITY Red Flag

TEAM Red Flag

PROTOTYPE Good

VERSATILITY Red Flag

GRUB FACTOR Good

COACH PREDICTABILTY Around wanting a ball playing middle – Good, otherwise Red Flag

ROTATION PREDICTABILITY Red Flag

FITNESS Green Flag

Mod Sammy