Amateurs Fantasy Sports

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Buys

Nathan Cleary HLF $745’000 Projected average: 71 BE: 71

For those that sold it’s time to bring him back into the fold especially with the injury to Jamie Humphreys providing a clear path. Likely the cheapest he’ll get all season and a matchup against the Dolphins is a good one despite the Panthers looking their worst in years. The return of Dylan Edwards should help.

Dylan Egan EDG $312’000 Projected average: 40 BE: -10

A roughly 25 minute middle stint combined with 25 minutes on an edge to end the game has vaulted Egan into strong buy contention. The role could change at any time but the bar is low given his price and break even plus his reserve grade stats indicate he’s a good fantasy scorer.

Siua Wong EDG $589’000 Projected Average: 47 BE: 2

We’ve kept saying it’s too late on guys like Wong and Whyte as the Roosters continue to stockpile more forward injuries or suspensions every week. Essentially at full strength now minus Collins, Wong has retained the starting edge role over Butcher and Radley and has seemingly won it on merit. We have his projected average in the high 40s based on the assumption he won’t be an 80 minute edge each week unless the Roosters pick up injuries which is the biggest risk with their forward stocks at their strongest all year. If he does play 80 regularly however, he pushes into keeper territory and could certainly be a risk worth taking. The Roosters bye schedule is perfect for overall coaches (or h2h coaches who play bye rounds).

Jamal Fogarty HLF $698’000 Projected Average: 59 BE: 45

With a base as solid as rock you can set your watch to Jamal Fogarty each week. Even in a blow out loss to Manly he posted a 41 which is very encouraging. He’s as solid as they come and will rarely let you down.

Holds

Sandon Smith HLF $405’000 BE: 20

With Chad being dropped and a very attainable break even for Sandon makes him hold. Savala was the preferred goal kicker over Sandon in reserve grade which may make him a sell next week but with the possibility of increased kick metres and perhaps holding the goal kicking for this week as the rookie half focuses on the basics for now.

Kalyn Ponga WFB $716’000 BE: 79

Back-to-back poor performances for Ponga and Newcastle alike have owners panicking but it’s important to remember this is the nature of the WFB position. He’s yet to score a try this season and I think there’s room for improvement here for Ponga.

Reece Walsh WFB $488’000 BE: 50

Walsh is basically too cheap to sell now and has been a real disappointment despite the Broncos performing really well. He hasn’t scored a try since round 1 which I’d expect to pick up but I think he’s worth giving another week or two to improve before locking in the 200k+ loss.

Sells

Jamie Humphreys HLF $634’000 BE: 65

Out for 4-5 weeks with a hamstring injury makes Humphreys an easy sell at this point. His long term prospects were starting to look dicey with Latrell taking over goal kicking and Cody Walker beginning to eat more and more into his kick metres. The injury eliminates any tough decision and can be moved on.

Jack Cole HLF $377’000 BE: 14

Not urgent given he’s a red dot this week and the break even is still low but he has undoubtedly sucked when paired with Nathan Cleary, averaging just under 22 in the three games Cleary has played 70+ minutes. His average run metres per game have been half of what he’s posted in the two games without Cleary, highlighting that he’s an after thought in attack.

Mark Nawaqanitawase WFB/CTR $418’000 BE: 16

A calf injury kept him out last week but he’s seemingly lost his job to Billy Smith with the Rugby convert relegated to 18th man duties. He could come back at any time but with most people holding a lot of Roosters currently it works as a good excuse to reduce your number by one.

Spicy Buys

Jayden Sullivan HLF $276’000 Projected average: 34 BE: 22

A risky one for sure given the possible short term implications but if you feel like a punt on a cheap half he’s certainly available for a dice roll. It’s possible Walker and Latrell just fill the halves in 2-3 weeks time but if Wayne chooses to move Latrell back to the centres or fullback, giving Sullivan until Humphreys returns then it could be game on. There is also the looming risk next week of Lewis Dodd who is out with a one game suspension, should Sullivan fail to fire.

Jake Clifford HLF $630’000 Projected average: 38 BE: 20

Certainly not one we’re recommending but people are buying the big red dog with a low break even and a three round average just under 62. It’s hard to deny Clifford has been in great form since returning for the Cowboys in round 3 and does look an improved player. However he has a history of short bursts of good scoring before regressing to who he is. A 66.6% try scoring rate and averaging two turnover tackles per game is completely unsustainable and is due for some regression. He looks improved defensively adding a lot more tackles to his game while not seeing any increase to his missed tackles, meaning a mid 40s average is attainable, but priced at 47 means he should be avoided.

Break evens taken from Rugby League Fantasy Pro