Amateurs Fantasy Sports

With two thirds of the season now over, we move into the final 9 weeks of the season. Some teams have completed their bye schedule, Origin is in the final stages, and players have shifted greatly in price since the season began, so it is time for us to look closely at the optimum lineup for fantasy coaches for the run home.

As far as “strength of schedule” goes, there is really only the Panthers providing heavy resistance to fantasy scoring this year, and even then the big guns get the job done. We will focus more on “good” matchups against the Tigers, Dragons, Bulldogs, Dolphins, Titans and Raiders, who are all leaking points more than the Titanic hull.

Getting the obvious out of the way, keepers who do not play State of Origin who are playing for the Tigers, Sharks and Titans should be at the top of your list, given they should be available (barring injury) for the rest of the year. Here are some keeper player options from these teams…

Nicho Hynes (HLF $989K)

You might be saying “Yeah, duh!” but the reality is that there are still 584 teams in the top 5000 that do not have Nicho Hynes yet. To that we say – do it now! After missing selection for Origin 3, Hynes is comfortably the highest projected overall scorer for the run home, and a perfect choice for the captaincy every single damn week. He faces the Panthers (who likely will have Cleary) in round 22, but that is weeks from now – and Hynes will play the Tigers, Warriors and Manly in the meantime, before finishing with two more plus matchups against the Titans and Raiders. Ideally you want Hynes and Cleary for the run home, but if you can only afford one make it Nicho.

Isaiah Papali’i (EDG $720K)

The Iceman started the season hot, opening the season with 5 scores of 55+ in a row, before failing to eclipse that mark again in all but 3 games since. He has found himself with only 1 try for the year in 14 games, where in the two years prior he averaged about 40% try scoring rate. There is no doubt that a drop in playmaker quality has played a part in this, but the fact he is still averaging 54.9 is a testament to his quality. He is a prime candidate for some positive try regression, and should be on the top of every single NRL Fantasy shopping list for the run home given the 3x plus matchups and 6 neutral ones. You can expect 55+ average, with upside into the mid 60s if the tries start flowing.

John Bateman (EDG/MID?? $763K)

Similarly to his previously mentioned counterpart, Bateman is putting up quality numbers in a relatively poor Tigers side. Batemans shift to Lock has been a revelation for his fantasy numbers, averaging 55 points across his 7 games in the hybrid middle/edge role, despite having two early showers due to copping a knock where he registered scores in the mid 30s. Outside that, his healthy average is 63.6 in 80 mins at lock, which needless to say puts him in an elite tier of scorers, particularly once he gains dual status after round 20. There are no issues carrying both of these players in your side for the run home.

Briton Nikora (EDG $717K)

I am hesitant to put this bloke on the list, and I will explain why. Unlike his price bracket buddy Papali’i, Nikora has a long history of mediocrity in a fantasy sense and has had a random spike year with an increase from 35.5 tackles and 80 metres per game to 37.2 tackles and 105 metres per game. Is this sustainable, or has Nikora been in a purple patch? Nikora has a season low of 69 (nice) run metres in 2023, where he registered less than that on 38% of games in 2022. Perhaps the combination of Nikora and Hynes has grown under coach Fitz, but I think he is a firm 3rd in terms of quality at the position here.

The Fringe Keepers

Additionally, there are a few players who are “fringe keepers” available from these teams, including the likes of Jesse Ramien, Starford To’a, Tanah Boyd, Phillip Sami, Jahream Bula and Teig Wilton, but you really don’t want any of these players in your starting 17 on a weekly basis and its probably more a case of “hold em if you got em, but don’t buy”. There are also a number of options from the Origin contingent, who we will discuss later. Special shoutout to Jake Simpkin, who is a nice money maker and round 19 hooker cover option.

THE POST ORIGIN PERFORMERS

Now, after this, the next players you really want to target (assuming you have round 19 under control) are guns (doesn’t matter if they play Origin) from teams who have their last bye in round 19. This would be the Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles and Storm, plus the Titans Origin contingent, and there are a number of great cut price candidates on this list, which we have listed in order of buy priority and value.

Daly Cherry-Evans (HLF $714K)

“Chez” was always destined to get his price moving in the right direction sooner rather than later, and coming off a last start 74, the time has come to board the DCE train. After scoring 5 tries in the opening 7 rounds, he went on a dry spell from rounds 9 to 17, before coming back with a splash in round 18 with a double. Thanks to a few poor scores in what should have been plus matchups, DCE now finds himself as a screaming value, probably $150K under priced given his last two season averages of 63.5 and 59.3 respectively. Amazingly, he is averaging 58.9 despite being priced at about 49, so there is a huge amount of price rises and quality scoring to come from the QLD captain who is matchup proof.

Harry Grant (HOK $752K)

Similarly to Cherry-Evans, Grant has posted a massive average as usual, but a few bad scores strung together either side of Origin 1 sees his price down in the bargain bin in what has otherwise been a strong year. Grant has certainly had a volatile year with a 55 point gap between his best and worst scores, but that is what we have come to expect from Grant and owners know to take the mid 30s scores every now and then waiting for the follow up 80 and predictable 60+ average. He has 3/8 plus matchups as a nice bonus too.

David Fifita (EDG $852K)

Fifita has been airborne this year, but not like he was in 2021 with unsustainable try scoring. He has rolled up the sleeves in 2023 no question, with an increase of about 7 points in base stats from previous seasons. He has also learned that passing the ball can yield good results with the defensive attention he draws, upping his try assist rate from 18% to 65%+ this year. This has catapulted him to touching the underside of a 70 average (outside his resting), which would put him in the Hynes/Cleary region. The most impressive part of this is that he has a low score of 56(!!) in 80 minute games this year, where in 2021/22 he scored under that amount on 40% of occasions despite averaging 65.1.

Kalyn Ponga (WFB $637K)

With his days in the halves firmly in the rear view mirror, and the goal kicking tee under his arm, Kalyn Ponga has been downright disrespectful to his opponents, registering a 5 game average of 59 points with only 1 score under 45, not to mention he only took over goal kicking this week to the tune of a perfect 11/11 kicks against the Bulldogs. Ponga will enter the back end with a real chance to be the #1 ranked WFB, considering he averaged over 55 points per game the last time he had the kicking tee permanently. We expect him to chalk up a 50+ average with ease if he keeps the goal kicking, with upside to 60.

James Tedesco (WFB $650K)

It seems the downfall of James Tedesco has been greatly over exaggerated, with the bounce back well underway and a 5 game average of almost 60 points. Heading into the back end, the Roosters and Tedesco will inevitably be in and around the pace for the top 8 and the charge will be lead by their captain Tedesco. I would back him in to average 55+ rest of season and be a top 3 WFB to finish the year.

Joseph Manu (CTR/WFB $694K)

With the lack of quality centres available, Manu is really just a necessity due to his attacking upside. In 2022, across 17 games, he averaged 46.8 at centre, which would be enough to make him the 2nd best centre who is finished their byes. The man in front of him Dane Gagai is suffering from a plantar fascia injury, which could impact performance and cause him to miss games in the future, hence why we prefer Manu.

Isaah Yeo (MID $826K)

With Fittler shifting him to the bench for game 3, plus the resting in round 17, Yeo looks to have an unexpected freshness for the run home. Across his last two seasons, Yeo averages in the lows 60s as an 80 min lock, which we expect to continue through the run home as the Panthers look to sure up the minor premiership and attack a 3 peat. There is obviously danger of Yeo playing reduced mins in round 20, and with a BE of around 75 you can certainly wait a week to bring him in, but Yeo will be an elite fantasy MID to finish.

Cameron Munster (HLF $718K)

If it wasn’t for DCE, Munster would be a lot higher on this list. Unfortunately for him, he lacks the base and floor of Cherry-Evans, while presenting a similar ceiling. The only real reason to take Munster over DCE at this point would be if he picks up a knock in Origin, or you believe Melbourne will go on a tear/Manly will falter bigtime in the run home. For those that love a POD, Munster will be far less owned by top teams.

Dane Gagai (CTR $640K)

The affore mentioned Dane Gagai may be worth the risk, even carrying a minor foot injury. He has been electric in 2023, averaging a full 5 points better than his career high despite scoring near a career low tries. Where Gagai is showing his biggest increase is through his base and base attack, up about 20 run metres, 1.5 tackle busts, and 0.75 offloads per game on his 2022 numbers, which we put down to the impact of Hastings and Gamble providing good early ball for players like Marzhew and Gagai to get through their work and provide an attacking spark. He with a $50k discount on Manu, Gags could be a great POD.

Dylan Edwards (WFB $614K)

No doubt about it, Edwards has been on fire this year. He started 2023 with an absolute bang, averaging 61.8 across the opening 5 rounds, before settling into a 47.9 average since which is still not bad going for a WFB. Thanks to this recent lower scoring, Edwards is now fairly affordable for the run home, and represents a great value with 5 games in the final 8 rounds, particularly if you believe the Panthers will finish strong with Cleary returning.

Moeaki Fotuaika (MID $703K)

Fotuaika has been immense for the Titans this year, punching out huge minutes on a consistent basis and being an essential cog in the engine room. Fantasy wise, the elevated minutes have lead to Fotuaika averaging 51.4 with his 50+ minute games being 52.9 in 63.9 minutes. He is a shade below the top tier guns at the mid position, but with the value on offer here you may elect to go here to afford other top tier guns.

Reuben Garrick (WFB $680K)

Garrick has provided mixed results at fullback in the past, and would be a no brainer if he picked up a centre dual. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like we will be that lucky, and Garrick feels closer to Dylan Edwards than James Tedesco, despite being the most expensive of the bunch. I would prefer him to Marzhew I think given the theoretical floor of a goal kicking fullback, and a breakout is possible, but don’t set your expectations too high.

Greg Marzhew (WFB $668K)

Similarly to Gagai, Marzhew has grown another leg in 2023, pumping up his numbers across the board to average a ridiculous 53 points across a 12 game sample. What may be the most impressive is that a winger has a low score of 34 points! Personally, I prefer my WFB options playing fullback, but I wouldn’t fault anyone looking at Marzhew. Be careful of the try regression though, as Marzhew is well above his typical try scoring rate.

WILDCARD! Nathan Cleary (HLF $993K)

Sometime between round 20 and the end of the season, the crown prince Nathan Cleary will return from a moderate grade hamstring injury. The NRL Physio tells us the risk of recurrence rate for these injuries is at its peak in the first two weeks back, and with a 99BE we can afford to wait and make sure that hammy is good to go. The choice to buy early could be a master stroke or a disaster, with the “straight bat” option being to see the price drop to a sensible mid $900ks and a manageable BE before jumping on in round 22ish.

ADDING THE IMPERFECTIONS

As we all know, life isn’t perfect, and we need to add players with byes, or maybe you already have them. Guys like Jack De Belin, Corey Horsburgh, Tohu Harris, Reece Robson, Damien Cook, Scott Drinkwater, Addin Fonua-Blake, Shaun Johnson, Mitch Moses, Joseph Tapine, Payne Haas, Connoly Lemuelu, Cam Murray and Ryan Matterson are fine options, particularly if they don’t cost a trade to bring in. You may also want to look in the bargain bin for Reuben Cotter if you are having trouble funding a full team of guns.

Additionally, you are going to want some cheaper players whose best ability is availability, some players who are in contention are cheapie Tyrone Munro, Izaac Fa’asuamaleaui, Seb Kris, Jake Averillo, Brendan Hands, Valynce Te Whare and Sean Russell, who can do a job filling our your emergencies and providing a critical green dot when trades run low.

All in all, be careful not to go crazy with the trade topup, buy wisely, and have fun!

Amateur Mark