Origin Hero Kurt Capewell was one of our early obvious buy options for 2022, but it seems as though he has lost some momentum since last year. Lets have a look closer at Capewell to see if maybe we have unnecessarily written him off…
Capewell looks to be a walk up 80 minute player at the Broncos, so we need to project his role as such. Extrapolated out for 80 minutes, his averages look like…
|80 MIN AVG||42.25||36.9||58.2||51.8|
One thing to keep in mind is that, prior to 2020, many times Capewell started on the edge and then shifted to centre or even wing midway through the game to cover injury. He was also not a full time edge player, only playing 7 games as a starting edge in 2017/18 before increasing to 15 in 2019. In 2020/21, Capewell was used almost exclusively in the back row, with his 2020 being cut very short due to injury.
Nonetheless, his 2020 starts on the edge were very impressive, scoring 3 tries in the 4 matches he managed to play 50+ minutes and averaging around 53.3 points per game in base stats (extrapolated to 80 min). In 2021 that number dropped to around 46.6 points per game in base stats (extrapolated to 80 min), but we can attribute that to the style of play in the NRL, particularly with the Panthers. Eliminating the bottom 4 sides, that number rises to 47.1, and basically Capewell wasn’t being asked to do the defensive workload in 2021.
Moving to 2022, partnering a rookie half, we expect Capewell to revert back to similar numbers to 2020, with some allowance for statistical variance. I want to bridge the gap between 2020 and 2021 in terms of the base, which would be roughly 50 points per game in base stats. Per Rugby League Fantasy Pro stats calculator, Capewells attacking points marginally outweigh his negatives across the last two years, so if we apply this trend to the base we could see Capewell average between 51-52 points per game. The worry for Capewell is whether or not the Broncos can turn things around, as a reversion to his prior career back row numbers in terms of attack v demerits would see him at 47-48 points per game, which is in a very awkward value range.
Starting at $511K, I have no doubt whatsoever that Capewell has at least 5 points of value. The question is whether it is 5-7 points of value or 9-11 points of value. Following this thought to its conclusion, I think there are a few players between 70k-100k cheaper who offer similar floor and ceiling, albeit with less job security, making the decision to buy Capewell the “safe but likely underwhelming” approach and as we know – fortune favours the brave.