The name Jake Trbojevic used to be synonymous with Fantasy Football consistency of the highest order. From 2017-2020 inclusive, “Jurbo” averaged between 54.5 and 58 points per game every year (new scoring) like clockwork and could be relied on for big minutes. In 2021, his average minutes only dropped by 2-2.5 minutes per game, but his average dropped to a paltry 47.6 which included a 1.4 point per game bump with T/O tackles.
So what changed?
In short, PVL ball completely destroyed Jurbo’s base stats. The average total points per game for Manly games (for and against) across the years is as below:
Essentially, this means more time standing behind the goal posts or waiting for Garrick to kick the goals, and less time tackling. It is reflected in his raw base too:
In particular, rounds 4, 6, 7, 10 and 20, Jurbo registered under 30 tackles in those games, with the average winning margin of those games being 34+ points. Those sorts of margins are rare pre 2021, with even the cellar dwelling 16th placed Broncos in 2020 only having an average margin of less than 18 points, and the #1 Panthers side having a winning margin of less than 15 points, numbers that were eclipsed in all 5 of these games. No surprises, Jake averaged 37.4 Fantasy Points in these 5 rounds, despite adding his only try of the year in round 10 in a 44 point romping of the Broncos at magic round.
With the wind back of the 6 again rule to only the attacking positions, we can expect a return to 2017-2020 style numbers from the NRL as a whole, which includes Manly and their attacking players, perhaps a bit more heavily weighted to 2017 + 2019 where Manly were a top 8 team as opposed to 2018 and 2020 where they were bottom 4. We would expect some regression for Tommy Trbojevic, which would still make him elite.
Jake Trbjojevic, with the added benefit of the turnover tackles, in a strong Manly side with the wind back to the pre 2021 level of points scoring, has a legitimate chance to average over 55 points per game up to 57+, being his 55.5 average in 77.5 minutes, along with the 1.5 in turnover tackles. This would be almost exclusively made up of tackling due to more ball in play, with a tiny bump in run metres which comes with it.
At $641K with a BE of 51, that would represent a 5-7 point value, and a huge help at the position. You will be able to hold him through to the Origin and bye period, and then depending on how well you have saved trades, you can upgrade him to an elite player or hold him through to the end of the season, as he may just be an elite player himself.