With the departure of Jadyn Su’a, the Rabbitohs have a vacancy on their right edge, which looks likely to be occupied by (Queensland State of Origin Hero thank you very much) Jai Arrow. Arrow, typically a middle, has the potential to be used at back row, a position he is familiar with having played there both at club and representative level. More than likely, new coach Jason Demetriou will be looking to have as many leaders on the park as he can, and that likely means a forward pack and bench resembling…
8. Tatola (40)
9. Cook (75+)
10. Nicholls (35)
11. Koloamatagi (80)
12. Arrow (65)
13. Murray (65)
14. Burgess (45)
15. Knight (30)
16. Back rower – Host/Chee Kam (40)
17. Taaffe (INJ)
In this scenario, Blake Taaffe provides the benefit of injury cover given the ability of the Rabbitohs forwards to play big minutes. Between Nicholls and Burgess they play about 80 minutes, with the remaining middle minutes to be played by Murray, Tatola, Knight (or other middle) and Arrow, who likely splits his time between the middle and edge.
We would expect Arrow to spend maybe 25 minutes in the middle in this scenario, with the remaining 40 minutes spent on the edge. This would allow the bench edge player to play about 40 minutes. The departing Su’a averaged 72.5 minutes per game in 2021, and has not been replaced by anyone significant, opening the door for Arrow to improve on his 55 minutes per game on the edge across 6 starts in 2021. We would expect the 3 games of under 50 minutes to disappear, leaving the balance of the three edge games he played where he played 67 minutes for 46 points. There is also minutes upside here, where the Rabbitohs may look to have an 80 minute edge forward to work in combination with new halfback Lachlan Ilias to not disrupt their combinations, which would boost Arrow up to about 55 points per game. This is obviously the minutes upside, and we do expect Arrow to need a breather and play that 65-70 minute role.
Looking at his 6 game edge sample, Arrow got very unlucky with his “non sticky” stats – tries and t/o tackles, of which he had none. We would normally expect 1 try and 2 t/o tackles as a minimum across 6 starts, meaning we can boost that projection (+14 for the try and +8 for the t/o tackles) up to a base of 49.5 in 67 minutes (0.74PPM). Priced at 44 points in a tough MID position, this would make Arrow a DPP EDG borderline keeper and a potential 18th man candidate. If of course he does manage to pump out 80 minutes a week, that could make him a stud DPP high 50s average player similar to Mitch Barnett who is currently priced at $699K.
All in all, Arrow looks pretty safe in terms of his role, having appeared in the #12 jersey and standing next to Ilias in the Rabbitohs behind the scenes video on their Fox Sports promotional day. With a new halfback, Arrow looks the ideal man to protect him and a sturdy option for your fantasy team, despite lacking some sex appeal selection wise.