Having just extended his contract at the club, Addin Fonua-Blake looks set for another big year in 2022 after putting up career best numbers from a fantasy perspective even with an injury affected 13 minute game. Excluding the injury game, Fonua-Blake averaged almost 60 minutes per game, with some near 80 minute performances covering for other Warriors injuries.
Coming into a season where the offload category just got a huge buff, we would be irresponsible not to look at AFB in more depth after his 1.5 offload per game performance in 2021, which gives him a small boost when compared to his 2.3 tackle busts per game.
Looking at the 2021 season in sections, AFB really hit his stride from round 20 onwards, racking up an average of 55.8 points in 59.2 minutes. In fact, outside of round 19 where the Warriors got hammered by a red hot Rabbitohs team, Fonua-Blake played at least 53 minutes from week 3 onward with a standard rotation ceiling of 64 minutes (with upside for injury).
Heading into 2022, we would be looking at 53 minutes as the weekly floor for Fonua-Blake, with 64 being the ceiling and the most likely average being the mid point of 58.5 minutes. With variance, we would expect Fonua-Blake to sit somewhere around 0.95, making his projection in the 55-56 range with a season long floor of about 52 and ceiling of high 50s.
At a price point of $651K with a break even of 52, your worst case scenario is AFB holds his value, but more than likely there is 3-4 points of upside and a season long keeper in a tough MID position who will play the first bye and not play origin. If you don’t believe in Jason Taumalolo, Fonua-Blake represents the “safer” option at the price point.